Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, driven by the capacity compensation policy and the accelerated construction of the power market, the economy of domestic independent energy storage projects significantly improved, leading to strong growth in overall energy storage demand. The US and European markets continued their steady growth, and emerging markets such as the Middle East and Australia continued to expand. It is estimated that the global new installed capacity in 2025 will reach 271GWh, a year-on-year increase of 45%. The expected good terminal demand prompted enterprises to increase their inventory coefficients, and the annual battery cell shipments are expected to reach 550GWh, a year-on-year increase of 65% [2]. - Looking ahead to 2026, the high returns of independent energy storage are expected to continue, and the large-scale winning bids for domestic projects lay the foundation for demand. Under the neutral scenario, the domestic new installed capacity is expected to be 284GWh, and in the optimistic scenario, it can reach 325GWh, achieving a doubling growth. Overseas, the US may face certain pressure in the short term due to the cost increase brought by the "Big and Beautiful" Act and the unmanifested energy storage demand related to data centers. The new installed capacity is expected to be 50GWh, a year-on-year increase of 4%. Europe will benefit from the profitability improvement brought by grid investment and trading mechanism optimization, and the new installed capacity is expected to reach 43GWh, a year-on-year increase of 39%. Chile, Australia, the Middle East, and India are the main sources of incremental growth in emerging markets, and the total new installed capacity in emerging markets is expected to reach 87GWh, a year-on-year increase of 68%. Overall, in 2026, the global new energy storage installed capacity is expected to reach 505GWh in the optimistic scenario, a year-on-year increase of 86%; 464GWh in the neutral scenario, a year-on-year increase of 71%; and 368GWh in the rigid scenario, a year-on-year increase of 36% [3]. - In the context of high terminal demand, the probability of a significant reduction in the inventory coefficient is low. However, it is necessary to consider the overdrawn demand in some markets. The US has limited additional inventory space in 2026, and Australia faces a similar situation. A total of about 60GWh of additional inventory demand needs to be deducted from the two regions. In 2026, the energy storage battery cell shipments are expected to reach 957GWh in the optimistic scenario, a year-on-year increase of 74%; 833GWh in the neutral scenario, a year-on-year increase of 52%; and 649GWh in the rigid scenario, a year-on-year increase of 18% [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Energy Storage Market Review - Domestic Market: In 2025, from January to October, the new installed capacity of domestic new energy storage continued to grow rapidly. The new installed capacity of new energy storage reached 34.6GW/92.6GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.6%. The proportion of grid-side energy storage increased to 60%, and the proportions of power source-side and user-side were 31% and 9% respectively. The price of energy storage continued to decline, but the decline has significantly narrowed. It is estimated that the new installed capacity of new energy storage in 2025 will reach 53.1GW/140GWh, a year-on-year increase of 31% [7][9]. - Overseas Market: The demand in overseas markets continued to be strong. From January to October 2025, China's energy storage battery cell exports reached 79.5GWh, a year-on-year increase of 86%. The US energy storage market maintained high-speed growth, and it is estimated that the new installed capacity in 2025 will reach 48GWh, a year-on-year increase of nearly 30%. The European energy storage market showed structural differentiation, with different performances in Germany, Italy, and the UK [13][19][26]. 2. Domestic Market: The Resonance of Rigid Demand for Consumption and Economy Opens Up the Upside Space for Installation - Rigid Demand: The continuous increase in the penetration rate of new energy has intensified the "duck curve" problem, and the ability of energy storage to regulate has become a rigid demand. The state has issued top-level documents to promote the consumption of new energy, and new energy storage is becoming a key tool to improve the consumption capacity of new energy. It is estimated that from 2026 to 2030, the installed capacity of new energy storage needs to reach 386GW, corresponding to an installed capacity of 1081GWh and an average annual installed capacity of 216GWh [32][34][36]. - Economic Driving Force: The driving logic of the domestic energy storage market has changed fundamentally. Independent energy storage has become the core driving force for the development of the domestic energy storage market. The economy of independent energy storage mainly comes from peak-valley spread arbitrage, auxiliary service market revenue, and capacity price compensation. The implementation of the capacity price compensation policy in multiple provinces will significantly improve the revenue level of energy storage projects [37][38][42]. - Demand Outlook: The energy storage bidding market has been active this year. It is estimated that the new installed capacity of energy storage in 2026 will be about 284GWh under the neutral scenario and about 325GWh under the optimistic scenario. The market generally expects that a national capacity price compensation policy will be introduced next year, and the compensation standard is expected to be linked to thermal power. Although the long-term demand in 2027 still has policy uncertainties, the trend of marginal improvement in the revenue of energy storage projects is clear [46][51]. 3. Overseas Market: The US is Under Pressure, While Europe and Emerging Markets Continue to Grow at a High Rate - US: The incremental installation of energy storage in the US in 2026 is expected to be limited. The "Big and Beautiful" Act may lead to an increase in manufacturing costs, which will suppress the demand in the US energy storage market to a certain extent. The revenue of energy storage projects in the US is facing downward pressure, and the new installed capacity may be slightly affected. The demand for energy storage in data centers has not been fully realized in the short term [54][55][59]. - Europe: The large-scale energy storage market in Europe is expected to continue to grow at a high rate in 2026, with the new installed capacity expected to reach 25GWh, a year-on-year increase of 54%. The post-meter energy storage market is showing a warming trend, with the new installed capacity of industrial and commercial energy storage expected to reach 6.9GWh, a year-on-year increase of 48%, and the new installed capacity of household energy storage expected to reach 10.7GWh, a year-on-year increase of 10% [63][67]. - Emerging Markets: The demand in emerging markets is booming, and the market increment is significant. The energy storage markets in Chile, Australia, the Middle East, and India are all expected to achieve rapid growth in 2026 [70][72][75]. 4. Demand Outlook: The Resonance of Domestic and Overseas Demand Accelerates the Release of Energy Storage Shipments - In 2025, the domestic demand continued to rise, the US and European markets maintained steady growth, and emerging markets such as the Middle East, Australia, and India continued to expand. It is estimated that the global new energy storage installed capacity in 2025 will reach 271GWh, and the battery cell shipments will reach 550GWh [80]. - In 2026, the domestic demand is expected to be further released, the US market is under short-term pressure, and the high growth rate of Europe and emerging markets is expected to continue. In the optimistic scenario, the global new energy storage installed capacity is expected to reach 505GWh; in the neutral scenario, it is expected to reach 464GWh; and in the rigid scenario, it is expected to reach 368GWh. The battery cell shipments are expected to reach 957GWh in the optimistic scenario, 833GWh in the neutral scenario, and 649GWh in the rigid scenario [80][82].
2026年储能市场行情展望：政策催生新动能，需求引领新周期
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-12-17 11:13