山金期货贵金属策略报告-20251217

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 0.42%, the main contract of Shanghai silver rose 5.05%, the main contract of platinum increased by 7%, and the main contract of palladium climbed 6.99%. [1] - In the short - term, the hedging demand from trade wars has subsided, but geopolitical risks still exist. The US employment situation has weakened, and inflation is moderate, causing the expectation of interest rate cuts to slow down. [1] - After the US and Europe consider providing security protection to Ukraine after a cease - fire, the German Chancellor stated that military action against the Russian army could be taken if necessary. Consensus has been announced from the Sino - US economic and trade consultations. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and other regions still remain. [1] - In November, the US employment rebounded more than expected, and the unemployment rate reached a four - year high. The Fed cut the interest rate amidst various disagreements, hinting at a suspension of action and only one possible interest rate cut next year. Powell pointed out that the Fed's interest rate policy is in a good position to handle future economic trends, but he refused to provide guidance on whether there will be another interest rate cut in the near future. Currently, the market expects the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in January 2026 to remain around 80%, and the next possible interest rate cut may be in April. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating weakly. [1] - Silver is supported by tight supply. The demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong. Palladium still has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. [1] - It is expected that in the short - term, gold will be weak while silver will be strong, and platinum and palladium will rise; in the medium - term, they will oscillate at a high level; in the long - term, they will rise step - by - step. [1] - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly increased. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold Strategy - For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, it is advisable to sell high and buy low. It is suggested to manage positions well and strictly set stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2] Data - International prices: The closing price of the Comex gold main contract was $4332.20 per ounce, down $2.10 (-0.05%) from the previous day and up $95.60 (2.26%) from the previous week. The price of London gold was $4324.20 per ounce, up $8.35 (0.19%) from the previous day and up $126.20 (3.01%) from the previous week. [2] - Domestic prices: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 979.72 yuan per gram, up 8.30 yuan (0.85%) from the previous day and up 23.32 yuan (2.44%) from the previous week. The closing price of gold T + D on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 972.93 yuan per gram, up 8.26 yuan (0.86%) from the previous day and up 21.80 yuan (2.29%) from the previous week. [2] - Basis, spreads, and ratios: The difference between the Shanghai gold main contract and London gold was - 7.43 yuan per gram, up 8.74 yuan (-54%) from the previous day and up 3.18 yuan (-30%) from the previous week. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 6.79 yuan per gram, down 0.04 yuan from the previous day and down 1.52 yuan from the previous week. The gold - silver ratio (London gold/London silver) was 67.70, down 2.28 (-3.26%) from the previous day and down 4.21 (-5.86%) from the previous week. The gold - copper ratio (Comex gold/Comex copper) was 8.08, up 0.06 (0.78%) from the previous day and up 0.13 (1.63%) from the previous week. The gold - oil ratio (Comex gold/WTI crude oil) was 78.67, up 2.20 (2.87%) from the previous day and up 6.11 (8.42%) from the previous week. [2] - Positions: The position of Comex gold was 432,946 lots (100 ounces per lot), unchanged from the previous day and the previous week. The position of the Shanghai gold main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 197,105 lots (1 kilogram per lot), up 899 lots (0.46%) from the previous day and up 4,446 lots (2.31%) from the previous week. The position of gold TD on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 45,964 lots (1 kilogram per lot), down 1,736 lots (-0.79%) from the previous day and up 16,318 lots (8.13%) from the previous week. [2] - Inventory: The LBMA inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week. The Comex gold inventory was 1,152 tons, unchanged from the previous day and down 13 tons (-1.08%) from the previous week. The Shanghai gold inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 18 tons, unchanged from the previous day, up 1.57% from the previous day, and up 1.32% from the previous week. [2] - CFTC managed - fund net positions: The weekly position of asset management institutions was 107,976 lots, with an increase of 11,291 lots compared to the previous week. [2] - Gold ETF: The SPDR gold ETF was 952.53 tons, unchanged from the previous day and down 3.15 tons (-0.33%) from the previous week. [2] - Futures warehouse receipts: The registered warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai gold was 18 tons, unchanged from the previous day and up 0.38% from the previous week. [2] Top 10 Net Positions of Futures Companies' Members in Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - Long positions: The total long positions of the top 5 members were 80,129 lots, an increase of 2,211 lots (23.17%); the total long positions of the top 10 members were 115,253 lots, an increase of 2,264 lots (33.33%); the total long positions of the top 20 members were 151,017 lots, an increase of 3,649 lots (43.67%). [3] - Short positions: The total short positions of the top 5 members were 10,555 lots, a decrease of 500 lots (3.05%); the total short positions of the top 10 members were 13,468 lots, a decrease of 519 lots (3.89%); the total short positions of the top 20 members were 14,364 lots, a decrease of 534 lots (4.15%). [3] Silver Strategy - For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, it is advisable to sell high and buy low. It is suggested to manage positions well and strictly set stop - loss and take - profit levels. [6] Data - International prices: The closing price of the Comex silver main contract was $64.13 per ounce, up $2.04 (3.29%) from the previous day and up $5.63 (9.62%) from the previous week. The price of London silver was $63.87 per ounce, down $0.64 (-0.99%) from the previous day and up $5.50 (9.41%) from the previous week. [6] - Domestic prices: The closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 15,512 yuan per kilogram, up 846 yuan (5.77%) from the previous day and up 1,139 yuan (7.92%) from the previous week. The closing price of silver T + D on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 15,455 yuan per kilogram, up 806 yuan (5.50%) from the previous day and up 1,078 yuan (7.50%) from the previous week. [6] - Basis and spreads: The difference between the Shanghai silver main contract and London silver was 1,058.46 yuan per gram, up 990.83 yuan (1465.09%) from the previous day and down 63.02 yuan (-5.62%) from the previous week. The basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 57 yuan per kilogram, down 40 yuan from the previous day and down 61 yuan from the previous week. [6] - Positions: The position of Comex silver was 144,541 lots (5000 ounces per lot), unchanged from the previous day and the previous week. The position of the Shanghai silver main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5,834,910 lots (1 kilogram per lot), up 373,980 lots (6.85%) from the previous day and down 923,445 lots (-13.66%) from the previous week. The position of silver TD on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 3,762,134 lots (1 kilogram per lot), up 35,016 lots (0.94%) from the previous day and down 71,616 lots (-1.87%) from the previous week. [6] - Inventory: The LBMA inventory was 27,186 tons, an increase of 932 tons (3.55%) from the previous week. The Comex silver inventory was 14,115 tons, down 22 tons (-0.00%) from the previous day and down 61 tons (-0.43%) from the previous week. The Shanghai silver inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 912 tons, an increase of 170 tons (22.93%) from the previous week. The silver inventory on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 714 tons, an increase of 21 tons (3.04%) from the previous week. The total explicit inventory was 42,836 tons, down 22 tons (-0.05%) from the previous day and up 93 tons (0.22%) from the previous week. [6] - CFTC managed - fund net positions: The weekly position of asset management institutions was 20,127 lots, a decrease of 806 lots compared to the previous week. [6] - Silver ETF: The iShare silver ETF was 16,018.29 tons, unchanged from the previous day and down 64.87 tons (-0.40%) from the previous week. [6] - Futures warehouse receipts: The registered warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai silver was 820,921 kilograms, an increase of 132,965 kilograms (19.33%) from the previous week. [6] Top 10 Net Positions of Futures Companies' Members in Shanghai Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - Long positions: The total long positions of the top 5 members were 126,825 lots, an increase of 11,877 lots (15.88%); the total long positions of the top 10 members were 172,346 lots, an increase of 26,401 lots (21.58%); the total long positions of the top 20 members were 212,404 lots, an increase of 29,129 lots (26.59%). [7] - Short positions: The total short positions of the top 5 members were 51,487 lots, an increase of 6,995 lots (6.45%); the total short positions of the top 10 members were 81,083 lots, an increase of 12,039 lots (10.15%); the total short positions of the top 20 members were 100,625 lots, an increase of 16,277 lots (12.60%). [7] Fundamental Key Data - Federal Reserve: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate was 3.75%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous value; the discount rate was 3.75%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous value; the interest rate on reserve balances (IORB) was 3.65%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous value; the Fed's total assets were $6,590.319 billion, an increase of $4.134 billion (0.00%) compared to the previous value; M2 (year - on - year) was 4.65%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points compared to the previous value. [8] - US Treasury yields and related spreads: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.52%, down 0.02 (-0.79%) from the previous day and up 0.01 (0.40%) from the previous week; the US dollar index was 98.22, down 0.06 (-0.06%) from the previous day and down 1.02 (-1.03%) from the previous week; the US Treasury spread (3 - month to 10 - year) was 0.16, up 0.02 (14.29%) from the previous day and up 0.04 (25.00%) from the previous week; the US Treasury spread (2 - year to 10 - year) was - 0.51, up 0.05 (-8.93%) from the previous day and up 0.06 (13.33%) from the previous week; the US - Europe spread (10 - year bond yield) was 1.61, down 0.03 (-1.83%) from the previous day and up 1.61 (100.00%) from the previous week; the US - China spread (10 - year bond yield) was 2.90, down 0.03 (-0.98%) from the previous day and down 0.00 (-0.17%) from the previous week. [8][10] - US inflation: CPI (year - on - year) was 3.00%, unchanged; CPI (month - on - month) was 0.30%, unchanged; core CPI (year - on - year) was 3.00%, unchanged; core CPI (month - on - month) was 0.30%, unchanged; PCE price index (year - on - year) was 2.79%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points; core PCE price index (year - on - year) was 2.83%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the 1 - year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan was 4.10%, a decrease of 0.40 percentage points; the 5 - year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan was 3.20%, a decrease of 0.20 percentage points. [10] - US economic growth: GDP (annualized year - on - year) was 2.00%, a decrease of 0.30 percentage points; GDP (annualized quarter - on - quarter) was 3.80%, an increase of 4.40 percentage points. [10] - US labor market: The unemployment rate was 4.60%, an increase of 0.20 percentage points; the monthly change in non - farm payrolls was 6.40 million, an increase of 1.69 million; the labor participation rate was 62.40%, unchanged; the average hourly wage growth rate was 3.50%, a decrease of 0.20 percentage points; the weekly working hours were 34.30 hours, an increase of 0.10 hours; ADP employment was - 3.20 million, a decrease of 7.90 million; the initial jobless claims for the week were 23.60 million, an increase of 4.40 million; the number of job openings was 8.179 million, an increase of 0.502 million; the number of Challenger corporate layoffs was 7.13 million, a decrease of 8.18 million. [10] - US real estate market: The