西南期货早间评论-20251217

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, industrial metals, agricultural products, and energy products. It assesses the current market conditions, supply - demand dynamics, and price trends of each commodity, and offers corresponding investment suggestions [5][8][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - Treasury Bonds: The previous trading day saw a mixed performance in treasury bond futures. The 30 - year contract declined by 0.19%, while the 10 - year and 5 - year contracts rose by 0.05% and 0.03% respectively, and the 2 - year contract fell by 0.02%. The central bank conducted 135.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 18 billion yuan. Given the current macro - economic situation, treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and a cautious approach is recommended [5][6]. Stocks - Stock Index Futures: The previous trading day witnessed mixed results in stock index futures, with all major contracts showing declines. Although the domestic economic situation is stable, the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, due to low asset valuations, sufficient economic resilience, improved market sentiment, and reduced Sino - US economic and trade uncertainties, the volatility center of stock index futures is expected to gradually rise, and investors can consider taking long positions [8]. Precious Metals - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices declined in the previous trading day. Given the complex global trade and financial environment, the trends of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", central bank gold purchases, and the expected continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, precious metals are expected to continue their upward trend. Investors can wait and watch for long - position opportunities [10]. Industrial Metals - Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil): Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations in the previous trading day. In the medium term, the supply - demand situation remains unfavorable, with weak demand due to the real - estate downturn and approaching off - season, and high inventory levels. The prices are expected to remain weak, and investors can consider short - selling at high prices during rebounds [12]. - Iron Ore: Iron ore futures rebounded slightly in the previous trading day. The supply - demand pattern is weak, with a decline in iron - water production, an increase in imports, and rising port inventories. Technically, there may be a correction, and investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high prices [14]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly in the previous trading day. The supply of coking coal decreased, and the demand for coke weakened. Technically, there are signs of stabilization, but the medium - term weakness remains. Investors can consider long - positions at low prices [16][17]. - Ferroalloys: Manganese silicon and silicon iron prices declined in the previous trading day. The supply of ferroalloys is in excess, with high production levels and weak demand. However, the cost is rising, and the downward space is limited. Investors can consider long - positions at low prices when the spot losses expand [19][20]. - Copper: The Shanghai copper futures contract declined in the previous trading day. The global copper concentrate supply - demand imbalance is intensified, and the production of electrolytic copper is expected to tighten. However, high copper prices have weakened terminal purchases. The price may face a technical correction after a strong rise [46]. - Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum futures contract rose slightly in the previous trading day. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is constrained, and the demand shows some resilience. The price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation [48]. - Zinc: The zinc futures contract declined in the previous trading day. The production of refined zinc is decreasing, and the consumption is in the off - season. Although the inventory is decreasing, the consumption drag and the expected oversupply next year remain. Caution is advised when chasing the price up [50]. - Lead: The lead futures contract declined in the previous trading day. The supply is shrinking, and the inventory is at a low level, limiting the downward space. However, weak demand and potential import pressure restrict the upward space. The price is expected to oscillate [52]. - Tin: The tin futures contract rose slightly in the previous trading day. The supply is tight, and the demand shows some resilience. The refined tin inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [54][56]. - Nickel: The nickel futures contract declined in the previous trading day. The nickel ore price is stable, but the downstream consumption is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. The price is expected to oscillate [57]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal: Soybean meal prices rose, while soybean oil prices fell in the previous trading day. The Brazilian soybean planting progress is slightly slower. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, while the demand for soybean oil is slightly improving but still facing supply pressure. Investors can consider long - positions at low - cost support levels [58][59]. - Palm Oil: Malaysian palm oil prices continued to decline. The international oil price also fell. The export of palm oil decreased, and the inventory is at a medium level in the past 7 years. It is recommended to wait and watch [60][61]. - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: Canola prices continued to decline, affected by the falling crude oil price. The import of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in China increased. It is recommended to wait and watch [62][63]. - Cotton: Domestic cotton prices declined slightly, and international cotton prices were also under pressure. The US and global cotton inventories increased. Although the domestic cotton harvest is good, the inventory accumulation is lower than expected. The price is expected to be strong [65][67]. - Sugar: Sugar prices declined. The sugar production in Brazil decreased, while India's production increased significantly. The domestic sugar supply pressure is increasing, but the 01 contract price is lower than the spot price, and the warehouse receipt volume is low. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [69][70]. - Apples: Apple futures prices declined significantly. The inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season apple production and quality have declined. The price is expected to be strong [72]. - Pigs: The national average price of live pigs declined slightly. The supply of large - weight pigs is gradually increasing, and the consumption may increase. It is recommended to wait and watch [74][75]. - Eggs: Egg prices remained stable. The egg production is at a high level, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and watch [76][78]. - Corn and Corn Starch: Corn and corn starch futures prices declined. The new - season corn harvest is good, but the transportation and farmers' reluctance to sell have affected the supply. The demand for corn is growing slightly, while the supply of corn starch is increasing rapidly, and the inventory is at a high level. It is recommended to wait for the release of supply pressure [79][80]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: INE crude oil prices declined. The CFTC data shows that US funds increased their net short positions. The price of Brent crude oil fell below $60, and the price trend is uncertain. It is recommended to wait and watch [21][22]. - Fuel Oil: Fuel oil prices declined and closed below the 5 - day moving average. The inventory in Singapore increased significantly, and the cost of crude oil is weak. The price has a large rebound space. It is recommended to wait and watch [24][25]. - Polyolefins: Polyolefin prices declined. The supply is expected to decrease due to plant maintenance, and the demand is weak. The market is mainly focused on inventory reduction. Investors can look for long - position opportunities [27]. - Synthetic Rubber: Synthetic rubber prices rose. The price is supported by cost and demand in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in supply - side equipment and demand recovery [29][30]. - Natural Rubber: Natural rubber prices showed a mixed performance. The supply is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [32]. - PVC: PVC prices rose. The supply is in excess, and the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the changes in the supply side [34][35]. - Urea: Urea prices remained stable. The supply is expected to be stable, and the demand from the industrial sector is strong. The price is expected to rise slightly [36]. - PX: PX prices rose slightly. The short - term PXN spread has been repaired, and the profit has improved. The price may oscillate, and attention should be paid to the changes in crude oil prices and macro - policies [38][39]. - PTA: PTA prices declined. The supply and demand are relatively stable, and the processing fee is stable. The price may oscillate, and attention should be paid to oil price changes [40]. - Ethylene Glycol: Ethylene glycol prices rose. The supply pressure is relieved, but the port inventory is increasing. The price may oscillate, and attention should be paid to port inventory and supply changes [41][42]. - Short - Fiber: Short - fiber prices rose slightly. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is stable. The price may follow the cost and oscillate, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [43]. - Bottle Chips: Bottle chip prices declined. The raw material price support is limited, and the export growth has slowed down. The price is expected to follow the cost and oscillate [44]. - Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate prices rose. The supply is at a high level, and the demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving. The inventory is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of consumption and the resumption of mining production [45].