铁合金日报-20251217

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Black Metal Daily Report [1] - Report Date: December 17, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Zhou Tao [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03134259 [1] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0021009 [1] - Contact Information: zhoutao_qh1@chinastock.com.cn [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Weekly Change | Trading Volume | Daily Change | Open Interest | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SF Main Contract | 5546 | 64 | 112 | 270107 | -12241 | 257884 | -6534 | | SM Main Contract | 5758 | 22 | 34 | 130766 | -29544 | 276107 | -2682 | [2] Spot Market | Product | Region | Spot Price | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 72% FeSi | Inner Mongolia | 5280 | 0 | 80 | | 72% FeSi | Ningxia | 5220 | -30 | 20 | | 72% FeSi | Qinghai | 5200 | 0 | -50 | | 72% FeSi | Jiangsu | 5600 | 100 | 100 | | 72% FeSi | Tianjin | 5600 | 50 | -50 | | Silicomanganese 6517 | Inner Mongolia | 5540 | 0 | 20 | | Silicomanganese 6517 | Ningxia | 5490 | 0 | 0 | | Silicomanganese 6517 | Guangxi | 5600 | 0 | 50 | | Silicomanganese 6517 | Jiangsu | 5680 | -20 | 0 | | Silicomanganese 6517 | Tianjin | 5700 | 0 | 0 | [2] Basis/Spread | Product | Region | Basis/Spread | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ferrosilicon | Inner Mongolia - Main Contract | -266 | -64 | -32 | | Ferrosilicon | Ningxia - Main Contract | -326 | -94 | -92 | | Ferrosilicon | Qinghai - Main Contract | -346 | -64 | -162 | | Ferrosilicon | Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia | 320 | 100 | 20 | | Ferrosilicon - Silicomanganese Spread | - | -212 | 42 | 78 | | Silicomanganese | Inner Mongolia - Main Contract | -218 | -22 | -14 | | Silicomanganese | Ningxia - Main Contract | -268 | -22 | -34 | | Silicomanganese | Guangxi - Main Contract | -158 | -22 | 16 | | Silicomanganese | Guangxi - Inner Mongolia | 60 | 0 | 30 | [2] Raw Materials | Raw Material | Region | Price | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Manganese Ore (Tianjin) - Australian Lumps | - | 41.5 | 0 | -0.2 | | Manganese Ore (Tianjin) - South African Semi - Carbonate | - | 34.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | | Manganese Ore (Tianjin) - Gabon Lumps | - | 43 | 0 | -0.5 | | Lanthanum Coke Small Material - Shaanxi | - | 800 | 0 | -20 | | Lanthanum Coke Small Material - Ningxia | - | 900 | 0 | -20 | | Lanthanum Coke Small Material - Inner Mongolia | - | 790 | 0 | -20 | [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Trading Strategy - On December 17, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The SF main contract closed at 5546, up 1.17%, with open interest decreasing by 6534 lots; the SM main contract closed at 5758, up 0.38%, with open interest decreasing by 2682 lots [5] - Ferrosilicon: On the 17th, spot prices showed mixed trends, with spot prices in some regions rising by 50 - 100 yuan/ton. On the supply side, recent poor corporate profit conditions have led some manufacturers to add maintenance or switch to other products, and this week's supply is expected to decline slightly. On the demand side, the macro data in November continued to weaken, and both steel production and apparent consumption decreased microscopically, still putting pressure on raw material demand. Overall, the fundamentals continue the pattern of weak supply and demand and continue to fluctuate at the bottom [5] - Silicomanganese: On the 17th, manganese ore spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend, with the semi - carbonate in Tianjin Port rising by 0.1 yuan/ton degree, while silicomanganese spot prices were stable with a slight downward trend, and spot prices in some regions fell by 20 yuan/ton. On the supply side, manufacturers' profit levels are not good, and the supply side is expected to decline. On the demand side, the real estate data in November continued to deteriorate, and both the apparent consumption and production of rebar decreased microscopically, dragging down the demand for silicomanganese. On the cost side, manganese ore port inventories are at the same - period low, and the quotes of overseas mines in January have all increased slightly, with the cost side rising, providing strong short - term price support, but the upside is suppressed by demand expectations [5] Specific Strategies - Unilateral: The fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and the cost side still provides support, with prices fluctuating at the bottom [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6] Important Information - On the 17th, the price of 37% Mn semi - carbonate in Tianjin Port was 34.5 yuan/ton degree, the price of 48.3% Mn Gabon lumps was 43 yuan/ton degree, and the price of 27.67% Mn, 22.37% Fe South African high - iron ore with a particle size of 10 - 100mm was 29.5 yuan/ton degree [7] - Two 72 ferrosilicon furnaces of a large factory in Gansu started to switch production, with one switching to low - aluminum ferrosilicon and one switching to 97 silicon [8] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts, such as the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread of main contracts sf - sm, the monthly spread of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the basis of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese (main contract - Inner Mongolia), the spot price of silicomanganese, the spot price of Inner Mongolia silicomanganese, ferroalloy electricity prices, the cost and profit of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, and the production cost and profit of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [16][17][19]