螺纹热卷日报-20251217

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Today, steel prices generally maintained a moderately strong oscillating trend, with iron ore leading the increase. Spot steel transactions were generally weak, and the willingness to sell at low prices increased. This week, according to Buguwang data, the production of building materials and hot-rolled coils increased, with building materials increasing at a faster rate. Total steel inventories continued to decline, and social inventories decreased significantly, with the overall inventory reduction rate remaining the same as last week. The apparent demand for building materials decreased slightly, while that for hot-rolled coils increased slightly. Overall demand has some support. It is expected that the molten iron output will continue to decline this week, but the blast furnace profit has recovered, and there may be a special increase in production at the end of the month. In December, coal supply may shrink again due to environmental protection factors, and steel mills also have inventory replenishment expectations. There is a structural shortage of PB powder, and steel costs are supported. Although the demand for building materials declines seasonally, the demand from the manufacturing industry still provides support. Affected by the implementation of export license management for steel products, short-term exports will continue at a high level. Steel prices may show a moderately strong oscillating trend due to raw material inventory replenishment, but will perform weaker than in November due to seasonal factors [5]. - Unilateral trading: Steel prices will maintain an oscillating range and may rebound after reaching a short - term bottom [6]. - Arbitrage trading: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high prices and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [7]. - Option trading: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3250 yuan (-), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3120 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3270 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3180 yuan (-) [4]. Market Research and Judgment - Related Prices: See the above - mentioned spot prices [4]. - Trading Strategies: See the core views for unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading strategies [5][6][7][8]. - Important Information: From January to November, the national general public budget revenue was 20.0516 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. Among them, national tax revenue was 16.4814 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%; non - tax revenue was 3.5702 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%. Central general public budget revenue was 8.8464 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1%; local general public budget revenue at the provincial - level was 11.2052 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. Relevant departments issued the "Benchmark Levels and Baseline Levels for Clean and Efficient Coal Utilization in Key Areas (2025 Edition)" [9][10]. Related Attachments - Multiple charts are provided, including those showing rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, and profit situations from 2021 to 2025, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [11][13][14][16][18][21][24][25][28][29][31][35][38][43][45][48][51][53]