尿素日报：突发印标，尿素反弹-20251217

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The urea market rebounded today due to a sudden Indian tender, with the futures price rising and the spot market seeing improved transactions. However, there is significant upward pressure, and the key to a breakout lies in the increase in downstream demand. The supply remains high, and the demand shows mixed trends with potential for winter storage demand [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The futures market of urea opened higher and rebounded, with the main 2601 contract closing at 1646 yuan/ton, up 1.29%. The spot market had active transactions, with some factories stopping sales. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1590 - 1670 yuan/ton [1][2][4]. - The daily urea production was 19.56 tons, remaining stable, and the operating rate was 80.6%. The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 117.97 tons, a decrease of 5.45 tons from last week, and the pre - order days were 6.24 days, a decrease of 0.7 days from the previous period [10][11]. - The basis of the January contract in Henan weakened, standing at 24 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Futures Market - The urea main 2601 contract opened at 1638 yuan/ton, closed at 1646 yuan/ton, with a trading volume increase of 1.29%. The open interest was 164,528 lots, an increase of 10,535 lots. Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 5,139 lots and short positions by 7,107 lots [2]. - On December 17, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 11,202, a decrease of 12 from the previous day [2]. Spot Market - Upstream factories reduced prices to attract orders, and the transaction was hot. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1590 - 1670 yuan/ton, with Henan factories having relatively lower prices [1][4]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The daily production remained above 190,000 tons, and the gas - based production reduction was weaker than in previous years due to looser natural gas resources [1]. - Demand: Agricultural demand was in the off - season, and traders replenished stocks in a timely manner. The policy of compound fertilizers was unclear, and the start - up speed of compound fertilizers was expected to slow down. Other industrial demand was gradually resuming, and winter storage demand was expected to continue to be released [1]. - Inventory: The overall inventory continued to decline, mainly concentrated in the Northeast and Northwest regions, while the inventory in the main delivery areas increased slightly [1].