沪铜日报：震荡偏强-20251217

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper industry is "Oscillating with an upward bias" [1] Core Viewpoints - Macroeconomic data affects market sentiment, and the copper market fundamentals remain in a tight - balance. If there are disruptions in the mining end, copper prices may rise significantly. During the interest - rate cut cycle, attention should be paid to US economic data [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened lower and moved lower, then turned positive in the afternoon. In November, non - farm payrolls increased slightly, but the unemployment rate reached a four - year high. Traders expect two interest rate cuts next year. The November SMM China electrolytic copper production was 1.1031 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,500 tons (1.05%) and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 1.2894 million tons, a 11.76% increase. SMM expects the December electrolytic copper production to increase by 65,700 tons month - on - month (5.96%) and 6.69% year - on - year. Copper product profits are squeezed, and the production enthusiasm of copper plate and strip is weak. Copper tube enterprises are restricted by capital pressure and mostly choose to wait and see. Copper foil maintains a high - prosperity level due to the demand for energy - storage batteries and the pre - demand of new - energy vehicles [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower and moved lower, then turned positive in the afternoon [1][4] - Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 150 yuan/ton, and in South China was 75 yuan/ton. On December 16, 2025, the LME official price was $11,635/ton, and the spot premium was + $1/ton [4] Supply Side - As of December 15, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $43.33/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.41 cents/pound [8] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 44,900 tons, a decrease of 907 tons from the previous period. As of December 15, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 97,200 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 166,900 tons, an increase of 725 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 454,600 short tons, an increase of 1,821 short tons from the previous period [11]