塑料日报：震荡下行-20251217

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information available Core Viewpoint - The plastics supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with a weak trading atmosphere. It is expected that plastics will fluctuate weakly in the near term. Due to the possible new plastic production capacity coming on - stream this year and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 行情分析 - On December 17, new maintenance devices such as Qilu Petrochemical's HDPE Line 1 were added, and the plastics operating rate dropped to around 86%, at a neutral level. The new production capacity of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE (500,000 tons/year) was put into operation in October, and that of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical (700,000 tons/year) in November [1][4] - As of the week ending December 12, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders continuing to decline. The overall downstream PE operating rate is still at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - Recently, the petrochemical inventory reduction has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years. The cost of crude oil has decreased. The downstream procurement willingness is insufficient, and traders are cautious about the future market, actively selling at reduced prices [1] 期现行情 Futures - The plastics 2605 contract increased positions and oscillated downward, closing at 6479 yuan/ton, down 1.01%. The trading range was between 6470 - 6543 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average. The open interest increased by 29,984 lots to 540,127 lots [2] Spot - The PE spot market mostly declined, with the price change ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6350 - 6570 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8000 - 8680 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6770 - 7940 yuan/ton [3] 基本面跟踪 - Supply: On December 17, new maintenance devices were added, and the plastics operating rate dropped to around 86%, at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week ending December 12, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory decreasing. The overall downstream PE operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - Inventory: On Wednesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 700,000 tons week - on - week, 80,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below 60 US dollars/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 725 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 745 US dollars/ton week - on - week [4]