2026年全国碳市场年度行情展望：全国碳市场：此消彼长，余震仍存

Report Title - "National Carbon Market: One Thing Gains While Another Loses, Aftershocks Still Linger — Outlook for the Annual Market of the National Carbon Market in 2026" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views of the Report - The macro - emission reduction target will provide an important reference for the downward adjustment path of the power generation industry's quota benchmark value. If 2025 is the peak - year, the average annual emission reduction rate of carbon dioxide from 2026 to 2035 needs to reach about 0.7% - 1.0%. In the neutral power generation growth scenario, the power generation emission intensity in 2026 needs to be reduced by at least about 1.1% - 1.4% compared with 2025. The estimated quota gap rate of the power generation industry in 2025 may expand to about 1.1% - 1.4%, corresponding to an annual gap of about 0.6 - 0.7 billion tons [2]. - The supply capacity of CCER will continue to expand in 2026, which will weaken the upward driving force of carbon prices. The total supply of "new supply + inventory" of CCER in 2026 is expected to reach about 25 - 32.5 million tons. If the CCER price returns to the normal range of "discount to CEA" in 2026, key emission units may use CCER on a large scale to replace quotas or fill compliance gaps [3]. - In 2026, the market will continue to digest the past quota surpluses, but the decline in surpluses is limited. Under the existing policies, the carbon price is expected to rise moderately, but it is difficult to return to the historical high. If new policies can give the market a clear expectation of the emission reduction path, the carbon price is expected to break through the historical high [3]. - The annual strategy is to go long on dips below 70 yuan/ton and take profit above 90 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Review Carbon Price Breakdown and Limited Rebound - In 2025, the price of China's national carbon market carbon emission allowances (CEA) showed a downward trend, with the price center shifting down by about 35% year - on - year. As of December 5, 2025, the average transaction price of the whole market was about 61.48 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decline of about 35%. The price trend can be divided into three stages: sharp decline in the first three quarters, a sharp drop and then a rebound in October, and a rise and then a fall in mid - November [8]. - The older the year - label of the quota, the firmer the quota price. As of December 5, 2025, the average transaction price of CEA24 was the lowest at about 59.04 yuan/ton, while CEA19 - 20 had the highest average transaction price at 75.13 yuan/ton [13] Nearly 9% Annual Turnover Rate and Increased Share of Listing Transactions - Thanks to "advance allocation" and "quota carry - over", the market trading activity continued to improve. As of December 5, 2025, the cumulative trading volume was about 194.23 million tons, the cumulative turnover was about 11.9 billion yuan, and the annual turnover rate was nearly 9%. The cumulative trading volume increased by about 53% year - on - year, and the turnover rate increased by 5.3 percentage points [15]. - Bulk agreement transactions still dominated, but the share of listing agreement transactions increased significantly, rising by about 11 percentage points year - on - year. The one - way call auction trading introduced in July was relatively inactive due to the rule setting and the market decline [17][19]. - CEA24 was the main trading target in 2025, accounting for about 71% of the trading volume as of December 5, 2025 [19] Four Key Policy Nodes Affected Market Trading Rhythm - The "rectification and volume increase" expectation in February was falsified as the 2023 compliance completion rate was high. The release of the expansion plan in March led to the release of forced - circulation quotas. The pre - allocation of quotas in April and the stable recovery of carbon prices doubled the market trading scale. The final allocation of quotas in August led to the largest concentrated trading volume of the year. The release of the quota plan for newly - included industries in November increased the potential demand, but the actual procurement demand was limited [21][24][25] 2026 Supply - Demand Outlook Power Generation Industry: Disassembling Macro - Emission Reduction Targets to Anchor the Downward Adjustment Path of Benchmark Values - China's attitude towards achieving the 2030 intensity target is relatively prudent, leaving room for policy adjustment. When setting the 2035 emission target, China took a relatively cautious attitude, leaving necessary strategic space for the implementation of the 2030 intensity target [33]. - Assuming 2025 as the peak - year, the average annual emission reduction rate of carbon dioxide from 2026 to 2035 needs to reach about 0.7% - 1.0%. In the neutral power generation growth scenario, the power generation emission intensity in 2026 needs to be reduced by at least about 1.1% - 1.4% compared with 2025. The estimated quota gap rate of the power generation industry in 2025 may expand to about 1.1% - 1.4%, corresponding to an annual gap of about 0.6 - 0.7 billion tons [38][39][44] CCER: Expanding Supply Capacity and Weakening the Upward Driving Force of Carbon Prices - The CCER market restarted in January 2022, but the project development rhythm was slower than expected in the early stage due to factors such as methodological disputes and the slowdown of project review and verification by the regulatory authorities [45]. - The CCER supply in 2025 was about 15 million tons, and about 5 million tons were used for 2024 compliance. The estimated market surplus at the end of 2025 was about 10 million tons [47][49]. - It is estimated that the new supply of CCER in 2026 will be 15 - 22.5 million tons, and the total supply of "new supply + inventory" is expected to reach about 25 - 32.5 million tons. If the CCER price returns to the normal range of "discount to CEA", it may significantly weaken the annual supply - demand contradiction in the national carbon market [52][53] 2026 Market Outlook - In 2026, the quota gap in the power generation industry may expand, but it will be partially offset by the increase in CCER supply. The market will continue to digest the past quota surpluses, but the decline in surpluses is limited [55]. - In the first half of 2026, the market may be in a "near - stagnant" state. The carry - over rule will still have a residual impact on the market, and the market confidence needs to be restored before the introduction of new policies [55][56]. - Under the existing policies, the carbon price is expected to rise moderately, but it is difficult to return to the historical high. If new policies can give the market a clear expectation of the emission reduction path, the carbon price is expected to break through the historical high [58]