短期矛盾放缓，碳酸锂高位盘整静待契机

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report It is expected that the lithium carbonate futures price will maintain a range - bound pattern in the next one to two weeks, with the main contract fluctuating between 95,000 yuan and 102,000 yuan per ton, due to the balance between supply and demand, the continuous but slowing inventory reduction, the strengthening basis and the expanding positions providing support, while the shrinking trading volume and the downstream wait - and - see sentiment restraining the upside space [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary 1.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - The main contract price of lithium carbonate on December 16, 2025, slightly declined to 100,600 yuan per ton, a 0.46% drop from December 15, while the basis strengthened to - 4,800 yuan per ton, narrowing by 1,960 yuan compared to December 15 [1]. - The open interest continued to expand, reaching 666,027 lots on December 16, an increase of 3,842 lots from December 15, and the trading volume shrank to 597,317 lots on December 16, a decrease of 102,284 lots from December 15 [1]. 1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply Side: On December 16, 2025, the price of spodumene concentrate rose slightly to 9,665 yuan per ton, up 97 yuan from December 15, while the price of lepidolite concentrate remained stable at 5,175 yuan per ton. The capacity utilization rate significantly increased to 83.52% on December 12, an 8.18 - percentage - point rise from December 5. It is estimated that the domestic lithium carbonate production in December will increase by about 3% month - on - month [2]. - Demand Side: The prices of downstream cathode materials moderately increased. The power - type ternary material was priced at 146,000 yuan per ton, and the power - type lithium iron phosphate was at 39,845 yuan per ton on December 16. The cell prices were generally stable or slightly increased. Although the new - energy vehicle sales declined year - on - year in early December, the overall performance in December is expected to be good. The energy - storage market has strong supply and demand. The production schedules of cells and cathode materials remained high but decreased slightly month - on - month. Downstream enterprises mainly made purchases based on rigid demand, with fewer new orders [2]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: The lithium carbonate inventory continued to decline, dropping to 111,469 physical tons on December 12, a decrease of 2,133 tons from December 5. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decline in December, but at a slower pace than in November [3]. 1.3 Price Trend Judgment It is expected that the lithium carbonate futures price will maintain a range - bound pattern in the next one to two weeks, with the main contract fluctuating between 95,000 yuan and 102,000 yuan per ton, due to the balance between the steadily expanding supply and the cost support, the marginal weakening of demand caused by the month - on - month decline in production schedules and cautious purchasing, and the continuous but slowing inventory reduction [4]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring The report provides price data of various products on December 16, 2025, and December 15, 2025, and December 12, 2025, and December 5, 2025, including the main contract of lithium carbonate, basis, open interest, trading volume, battery - grade lithium carbonate, spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, etc., and shows their price changes and rates of change [6]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations 3.1 Spot Market Quotes On December 16, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose to 95,962 yuan per ton, and the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased to 95,850 yuan per ton. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate also had a price increase. The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated within a range. Downstream material manufacturers were cautious and mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. The actual market transactions were light. The annual long - term contract negotiations between upstream and downstream enterprises were ongoing. It is estimated that the domestic lithium carbonate production in December will increase by about 3% month - on - month. The new - energy vehicle sales in December are expected to be good, and the energy - storage market remains strong in supply and demand. The production schedules of cells and cathode materials are expected to remain high but decrease slightly month - on - month. The lithium carbonate inventory is expected to continue to decline in December but at a slower pace [7]. 3.2 Downstream Consumption Situation From December 1 to 7, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles nationwide were 185,000 units, a 17% year - on - year decrease and a 10% month - on - month decrease. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 1,165.7 million units, a 19% year - on - year increase. The wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers were 191,000 units, a 22% year - on - year decrease and a 20% month - on - month decrease. The cumulative wholesale sales this year reached 1,394.7 million units, a 27% year - on - year increase [8]. 3.3 Industry News In recent years, fast - charging lithium iron phosphate batteries have accelerated their penetration into the market, and the demand for high - density lithium iron phosphate materials is increasing. Wanrun New Energy announced a technical upgrade of its production line to increase the supply capacity of high - end products [10]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report presents multiple data charts, including those of the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, etc., with data sources such as Shanghai Steel Union and SMM [11][14][16].