PP日报：震荡运行-20251217

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of PP remains unchanged, with a light spot trading atmosphere. It is expected that the upward space of PP will be limited in the near future. Due to the possibility of new PP production capacity coming on - stream this year and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 12, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. However, the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 44.06% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On December 17, there were few changes in maintenance units, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 84%, at a neutral level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring remained at around 24% [1] - Recently, the de - stocking of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [1] - On the cost side, some previously faulty oil fields in Iraq have resumed production. The US is still actively promoting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and Ukraine has made certain compromises on security guarantees. The crack spread of refined oil products in Europe and the US has continued to decline, and the crude oil price has dropped [1] - In terms of supply, the new 400,000 - ton/year production capacity of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October. Recently, the number of maintenance units has slightly decreased. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited boost to the market, and traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Quotes Futures - The PP2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6,226 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6,275 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,254 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.05%. The position increased by 21,552 lots to 519,494 lots [2] Spot - The spot prices of PP in most regions declined. The drawstring was quoted at 5,980 - 6,280 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking Supply - On December 17, there were few changes in maintenance units, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 84%, at a neutral level [4] Demand - As of the week ending December 12, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. However, the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 44.06% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] Inventory - On Wednesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 700,000 tons week - on - week, 80,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, the de - stocking of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4] 3.4 Raw Material End - Crude Oil - The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $60/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $745/ton week - on - week [6]