养殖产业链日报：延续弱势震荡-20251217

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The soybean market shows a pattern of "price increase driven by sentiment in production areas and limited by demand". It will remain volatile in the short - term, and domestic soybeans may decline if the near - month auction volume of imported soybeans drops [1] - For corn, the selling pressure on prices will gradually decrease as the current sales progress advances. After the loosening of the hoarding sentiment, the supply will increase, suppressing the short - term upward space, but the worst stage is over, and there may be a buying opportunity around New Year's Day [1] - Egg spot prices have stabilized, but the upward drive weakens as the price approaches the cost line. The short - term supply is still loose, and the far - month contracts have no obvious trend [2] - The pig market is in a stage of increasing supply and demand with stable prices. Demand increase is expected to be greater than supply increase, which may drive prices up marginally to near the cost line. The far - month contracts may rise after the Spring Festival, but significant trends still need to wait [2] Group 3: Summary by Product Soybean - The soybean market has the characteristic of "price increase driven by sentiment in production areas and limited by demand". Northeast production areas lead the increase, while the southern market follows but with insufficient demand. In the short - term, there is a game between hoarding sentiment on the supply side and cautious procurement on the demand side. It will maintain a volatile pattern, and domestic soybeans may decline if the near - month auction volume of imported soybeans drops [1] Corn - The average grassroots sales progress in Northeast China is about 38% according to three - party data and 42% according to the National Grain and Oil Information Center. The selling pressure on prices will gradually decrease. The inventory in the trading link is significantly higher than last year, which is a key variable for the market trend. After the loosening of the hoarding sentiment, the supply will increase, suppressing the short - term upward space, but the worst stage is over, and there may be a buying opportunity around New Year's Day [1] Egg - Egg spot prices have stabilized, but the upward drive weakens as the price approaches the cost line. The short - term supply is still loose, and the near - month spot remains volatile. The far - month contracts are affected by the inconsistent expectations of production capacity reduction and the actual progress, and there is no obvious trend [2] Pig - The pig market is in a stage of increasing supply and demand with stable prices. The daily average slaughter volume in December has only increased slightly, and the weight gain is not obvious. With the cooling and expected bacon - curing, demand increase is expected to be greater than supply increase, which may drive prices up marginally to near the cost line. However, there is still a large supply pressure. The decline in the near - month inventory, especially the breeding sow inventory, makes the far - month contracts likely to rise after the Spring Festival, but significant trends still need to wait [2]