2026年新能源车年度需求展望：规模增长预期温和，结构增量成为核心

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global electric vehicle demand growth rate will tend to be moderate, and the increase in the penetration rate of the structural market will become the core logic. It is estimated that the total global electric vehicle sales will increase by 13% year-on-year to 23.75 million units. China's total sales will increase by 16% year-on-year to 19.12 million units, and domestic demand will increase by 11% to 15.66 million units. In terms of year-on-year increment, China, Western Europe, and emerging Asian regions will contribute 60%, 25%, and 19% respectively, making them the core driving regions, while the American market may have a negative impact [2][81]. - China's electric vehicle market faces the total pressure of the diminishing marginal benefit of the trade-in policy and the increase in purchase tax, and there is a risk of a slowdown in growth. However, the structural market still has bright spots, including the in-depth development of passenger electric vehicles in the sinking market and the electrification of the commercial field. Although the penetration rate of the mid - high - end market has slowed down at around 60%, the penetration rate of the sinking market still has room to catch up, and the penetration rate of the commercial field is expected to increase by 10%. It is estimated that the structural market may have an incremental space of nearly 2.2 million units. However, the sinking market is more cost - sensitive, and the weakening of purchase tax incentives may increase the resistance to the release of sinking consumption power. In addition, the market has a high demand for the continuation of the trade - in policy, but the accumulated over - consumption of replacement demand may reach more than one million units, which may drag down the demand forecast. It is estimated that China's domestic demand is expected to bring an incremental of about 1.6 million units [3][82]. - The incremental overseas market lies in Europe and emerging regions. Europe's new carbon emission cycle is forcing the electrification process forward. Although the cycle target has been temporarily relaxed, the long - term trend remains unchanged. There are both short - term assessment pressure and long - term target driving forces, and many European countries have restarted subsidies to support it. It is estimated that Western Europe is expected to bring an incremental of 600,000 - 700,000 units. At the same time, other emerging Asian regions are still in the subsidy policy cycle, and their electrification progress is catching up with that of mature markets, which is expected to bring an incremental of 400,000 - 500,000 units. On the contrary, the pre - consumption in the US market has been initially realized, and after the policy direction changes, there may be a risk of negative impact [3][82]. Summary According to the Directory 1. 2025 Electric Vehicle Demand Review: China and Europe as the Main Drivers - In the first three quarters of 2025, the global electric vehicle sales increased by 28% year - on - year to 14.63 million units (with an incremental of 3.21 million units year - on - year), and the annual sales in 2025 are expected to increase by 20% year - on - year to more than 20 million units. In terms of market share, China's domestic demand market accounts for 65%, other regions in Asia and Oceania (excluding China) account for 5%, Western Europe accounts for 18%, the Americas account for 10%, Central and Eastern Europe account for 1%, and the Middle East and Africa account for 1% [6]. - In the 3.21 million units of year - on - year incremental, China contributes 64%, other regions in Asia and Oceania (excluding China) contribute 10%, Western Europe contributes 18%, the Americas contribute 5%, Central and Eastern Europe contribute 2%, and the Middle East and Africa contribute 1% [6]. - In terms of penetration rate, the growth rate of China's market penetration rate has slightly slowed down marginally, with the penetration rates from 2022 - 2025 being 26%, 33%, 45%, and 50% respectively; the electrification of other emerging regions in Asia and Oceania has started, and the penetration rate has increased from the historical 4% - 6% to 11% marginally; the European region has been boosted by the new carbon emission cycle, especially in Western Europe, where the penetration rate has increased by 5% to 26% after stagnating at 21% - 22%, and the penetration rate in Central and Eastern Europe has also increased by 3% to 6%; while the growth in the Americas, the Middle East, and Africa is relatively small, with the penetration rate remaining stable and slightly increasing [6]. 2. China: Structural Market Growth, Policy Driving Force Weakening 2.1 Structural Incremental to Make up for the Gap, Electrification Penetration to Increase - The consumption structure of electric vehicles is differentiated, and the penetration rate of the sinking market is expected to catch up. From 2023 - 2025, the penetration rate of the high - end passenger vehicle market (models above 300,000 yuan) has remained stable at a high level, basically running at around 60%, while the sinking market has started in - depth electrification. Automobile enterprises have carried out price cuts, promotions, and new product launches in the domestic market and explored export markets in emerging regions such as Asia, constantly catching up with the penetration rate of high - end electric vehicles. Among them, the penetration rate of the 200,000 - 300,000 yuan market has linearly increased from 38% to 60%, but after reaching 60%, the marginal increase in penetration rate has converged. The penetration rates of the 100,000 - 200,000 yuan and below 180,000 yuan markets have increased from 31% and 28% to 48% respectively. Looking forward, the sinking market will be the core incremental in 2026, and the greatest potential lies in the 100,000 - 200,000 yuan and below 100,000 yuan markets. In the passenger vehicle segment, these two markets account for about 70% in total, and the sales volume is expected to exceed 20 million units in 2025. If it is assumed that the sinking penetration rate is fully made up to 60% in 2026, it is expected to bring an incremental of about 1.7 million units to the domestic demand for electric vehicles [21]. - The electrification of the commercial field has started. Commercial vehicles account for about 13% of automobile demand, mainly including buses and trucks (including tractors), accounting for 15% and 85% of the commercial market respectively. Trucks are further divided into heavy - duty, medium - duty, light - duty, and mini - trucks. If tractors are included in heavy - duty trucks, the four types account for 32%, 5%, 52%, and 11% of the truck market respectively. In 2025, the penetration rate has shown a steep growth trend. The electrification of the commercial field is mainly driven by technological and scenario - based factors. The increase in battery energy density has met the demand for short - and medium - distance urban distribution, and the optimization of cost - effectiveness has made electric vehicles more competitive. Secondly, due to the relatively fixed transportation points compared with passenger vehicles, intelligent technology has solved the customized scenario - based demand, including urban distribution and park transportation. The large - scale replacement of logistics customers is the driving force for the growth of commercial penetration. Therefore, it is expected that the difference in structural penetration rate between the commercial and passenger vehicle fields is expected to be broken. If the penetration rate of commercial vehicles increases by 10% in 2026, it is expected to bring an incremental of about 500,000 units to the demand for electric vehicles [24]. - The average battery capacity per vehicle has started to rise again, and the growth rate of power is expected to exceed that of the terminal. From the perspective of installed capacity to measure the demand for electric vehicles, in the previous transition period from fuel vehicles to electric vehicles, the proportion of PHEV has increased significantly, doubling from less than 20% to more than 40%. The increase in the proportion of low - battery - capacity vehicles and the increase in battery energy density have offset each other's effects, and the average battery capacity per vehicle has basically remained stable from 2021 - 2024. However, in 2025, there has been an important turning point. The growth of the PHEV proportion has stagnated and even declined slightly, which also indicates the transformation of the transition period. In the long term, with the improvement of battery technology, BEV will still be the mainstream direction of electric vehicles. At the same time, since the average battery capacity of BEV/PHEV in commercial vehicles is close to 200/90 KWh, about 3.6/2.8 times that of passenger vehicles respectively, the electrification of the commercial field, combined with the transformation cycle of the technology route, will make the growth rate of electric vehicle demand measured from the perspective of installed capacity more optimistic [31]. 2.2 Policy Driving Force Weakening, Concerns about Demand Remaining - The effectiveness of the trade - in policy has decreased, and attention should be paid to the impact of over - consumption in the long term. In early 2025, the continuation of the trade - in policy filled the vacuum period after the end of the subsidy cycle in 2024, and the policy intensity exceeded market expectations, mainly including three aspects: 1) The subsidy amount remained at the increased level in 2024; 2) The scope of old models eligible for scrap and replacement was expanded; 3) The policy period was longer, covering the whole year. As of the end of October, it can be found that the average daily application volume of subsidies in 2025 reached 34,000, exceeding the average daily application volume in 2024 by 84%. However, marginally, since 54% of the total 300 billion yuan of trade - in funds was allocated in the first half of the year, it provided support for the consumer side. However, the less funds in the second half of the year were mismatched with the seasonality of automobile consumption. In the second half of 2023 and 2024, automobile sales usually accounted for 56% of the annual sales, and for electric vehicles, it even reached 61% - 63%. Therefore, the trade - in policies in various provinces have been decreasing in the second half of the year, and it is expected that the average daily application volume for the whole year will drop to about 31,000 - 32,000, still more than 70% higher than that of last year. Looking forward to 2026, after stimulating the unexpected replacement demand of consumers in 2024 - 2025, it will have a certain over - consumption effect on the long - term demand. In the report "Terminal Demand Logic Switching, Policy Cycle Awaited", the over - consumption effect was evaluated, and it is estimated that the cumulative over - consumption of electric vehicle demand in two years may reach 1.2 - 1.5 million units, which may put pressure on the demand in 2026. Of course, in the stage of economic bottom - building and recovery, the market generally has a high demand for the continuation of the trade - in policy. The continuation of the policy may bring forward the more long - term demand, thereby offsetting the impact on the short - term demand in 2026. Therefore, the continuation intensity of the subsidy policy is still worthy of attention. The Central Economic Work Conference has deployed the economic work for 2026, and the key task mentions "adhering to the domestic demand - led strategy and building a strong domestic market", which involves optimizing the implementation of the "two new" policies, further giving the market expectations for the continuation of the trade - in policy [37]. - The preferential policy for electric vehicle purchase tax has been reduced, and the electrification of the sinking market may not be as expected. According to the purchase tax policy in June 2023, new energy vehicles purchased between 2024 - 2025 are exempt from vehicle purchase tax, but the tax reduction for new energy passenger vehicles should not exceed 30,000 yuan. From 2026 - 2027, new energy vehicles will be subject to a half - reduction in purchase tax, and the tax reduction for each new energy passenger vehicle should not exceed 15,000 yuan. By comparing the previous four policies, the preferential intensity of tax has shown a certain decline, and 2026 may be an important turning point. If this round of preferential policy remains unchanged, the overall demand for electric vehicles in 2026 may face pressure. More importantly, as mentioned above, the core incremental in 2026 lies in the strength of the sinking market, and this part of the market is relatively sensitive to discounts of tens of thousands of yuan. The reduction in the preferential intensity of purchase tax may make the electrification of the sinking market fall short of expectations [41]. 3. Overseas: Different Policy Directions in Europe and the United States, Emerging Regions Catching Up 3.1 Europe's Policy: Both Hard and Soft Measures, Second - Round Electrification Promotion - The European market was under the negative pressure of subsidy withdrawal for three years from 2022 - 2024, and the growth of penetration rate basically stagnated. However, in 2025, the space for subsidy withdrawal narrowed, and the logic switched to a new carbon emission cycle, restarting the electrification cycle. Even in the stage of economic pressure and negative growth of automobile consumption, European electric vehicles still achieved a growth rate of more than 20%, far exceeding market expectations. The growth of the European market does not come from the total volume, but from the policy - driven increase in penetration rate. Among them, Western Europe accounts for more than 90% of the electric vehicle demand in Europe, and the penetration rate increased by 5% to 26% from January to September. The penetration rate in Central and Eastern Europe also increased by 3% to 6% [43]. - The carbon emission target has been marginally relaxed, but the long - term trend remains unchanged. The EU has formulated a series of strict automobile carbon emission regulations in stages, with a five - year cycle. Taking passenger vehicles as an example, the carbon emission target for automobile enterprises from 2020 - 2024 was 115.1 g/km, and the original target starting from 2025 was 93.6 g/km. However, in March 2025, considering the pressure on European automobile enterprises, the European Commission mentioned that the carbon emission assessment pressure in 2025 would be relaxed stage by stage. In May, the European Parliament approved the revised regulation plan for the relaxation of carbon emission requirements, that is, the average carbon emission from 2025 - 2027 only needs to meet the original target. This adjustment is not considered to change the long - term electrification trend, but to ease the short - term pressure on European automobile enterprises. From the deduction of the three - year average target path: due to the phenomenon that some orders were delivered in 2025 after being postponed from 2024, combined with the low base, the growth rate of the European region in 2025 is expected to be more than 26%. On this basis, the consumption of electric vehicles in Europe still needs an annualized growth of 10% from 2026 - 2027 to achieve the target. Therefore, there is still a long - term driving force for electrification [44]. - The short - term target is not the focus, and long - term electrification is the core. In the report "Terminal Demand Logic Switching, Policy Cycle Awaited", the European automobile carbon emission cycle from 2020 - 2024 was reviewed. European automobile enterprises did not just meet the immediate target, but also needed to work hard in advance for the higher target in the next cycle. Although they did not directly meet the target in the first year of the previous cycle, they exceeded the immediate target in the second and third years of the cycle. Facing the long - term target of reducing carbon emissions by half by 2030, European automobile enterprises still need to continue electrification from 2025 - 2029 and may not be short - sighted about the current targets from 2025 - 2027. At the same time, considering the base effect, the growth rate of Europe from 2026 - 2027 is expected to significantly exceed 10%. If the penetration rate reaches 35% in 2026, the growth rate is expected to exceed 18% [45]. - A new round of electrification has started, and Europe has restarted subsidies to support it. Key European countries have introduced subsidy policies: 1) In July, the UK announced a 650 - million - pound electric vehicle subsidy plan, providing a 3,750 - pound subsidy for electric vehicles below 37,000 pounds, and the funds will last until the 2028 - 2029 fiscal year. If it is assumed that the subsidy lasts for 4 years, about 43,000 electric vehicles per year can receive the subsidy; 2) The German government plans to allocate 3 billion euros for electric vehicle subsidies by the end of 2029, mainly targeting low - and middle - income groups. The subsidy will take effect on January 1, 2026. For electric vehicles with a price below 45,000 euros, the subsidy amount can be up to 4,000 euros; 3) In October, Italy launched a new 600 - million - euro subsidy plan, with a maximum subsidy of 11,000