原油日报：原油低开后震荡运行-20251217

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The report anticipates that the crude oil price will oscillate weakly due to an oversupply situation in the crude oil market [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - OPEC+ agreed to maintain the organization's overall oil production in 2026, and 8 additional voluntarily - reducing oil - producing countries will suspend production increases in Q1 2026. The peak season for crude oil demand has ended, and EIA data shows that the decline in US crude oil inventories was less than expected while the increase in refined oil inventories exceeded expectations. US crude oil production is near a record high. The Trump administration is promoting a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and there has been positive progress in the peace talks. The risk premium for Russian crude oil is falling, and the crack spreads of refined oil in Europe and the US are also dropping. The military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has intensified, causing concerns about export disruptions. The market is worried about crude oil demand, and there is an oversupply of crude oil [1]. Futures and Spot Market - The main contract of crude oil futures, the 2602 contract, dropped 1.27% to 426.7 yuan/ton, with a low of 419.6 yuan/ton and a high of 428.4 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 4504 to 39057 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - EIA raised the US crude oil production in Q4 2025 by 40,000 barrels per day to 13.86 million barrels per day, increased non - OPEC+ oil supply by 50,000 barrels per day, and raised global crude oil production by 300,000 barrels per day. It also lowered global oil demand in Q4 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day. IEA raised the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 40,000 barrels per day to 830,000 barrels per day and in 2026 by 90,000 barrels per day to 860,000 barrels per day. It also lowered the global oil supply growth rate in 2025 by 100,000 barrels per day and in 2026 by 20,000 barrels per day. OPEC maintained the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 at 1.3 million barrels per day and in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day [3]. - On the evening of December 10th, EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.8 million barrels in the week ending December 5th, less than the expected 2.31 million barrels, and 3.21% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories increased by 6.397 million barrels, exceeding the expected 2.764 million barrels, and refined oil inventories increased by 2.502 million barrels, more than the expected 1.943 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 200,000 barrels [3]. Supply and Demand - On the supply side, OPEC's October crude oil production was lowered by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.481 million barrels per day, and its November 2025 production decreased by 0.1 million barrels per day to 28.48 million barrels per day, mainly due to production cuts in Iraq and Iran. OPEC+ crude oil production in November increased by 43,000 barrels per day compared to October to 43.06 million barrels per day. US crude oil production in the week of December 5th increased by 38,000 barrels per day to 13.853 million barrels per day, near a record high [4]. - US crude oil product four - week average supply increased to 20.417 million barrels per day, 0.31% higher than the same period last year, but the margin of increase decreased. Gasoline weekly demand increased 1.56% week - on - week to 8.456 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 8.509 million barrels per day, 1.27% lower than the same period last year. Diesel weekly demand increased 21.22% week - on - week to 4.158 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.708 million barrels per day, 3.42% higher than the same period last year. The significant increase in diesel demand drove a 4.42% week - on - week increase in US crude oil product single - week supply [4][6].