PVC日报：震荡运行-20251217

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - PVC is expected to move in a sideways pattern, and its upside potential is limited in the near term due to factors such as high inventory, weak downstream demand, and the traditional off - season [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.46 percentage points to 79.43% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream operating rate of PVC declined slightly, and downstream product orders were poor. In terms of exports, PVC exchanged volume for price, and last week's export orders increased, but the Indian market price is falling, and Indian demand is limited. Social inventory increased slightly last week and remains high, with significant inventory pressure. From January to November 2025, the real estate market is still in the adjustment phase, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas, and further drops in year - on - year growth rates. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in recent years. The real estate market needs time to improve. New production capacities of 300,000 tons/year from Gansu Yaowang and 300,000 tons/year from Jiaxing Jiahua have recently been put into operation. The rebound of bulk commodities such as coking coal boosted market sentiment, the comprehensive gross profit of chlorine - alkali decreased, and the operating expectations of some producers declined, but the current decline in production is limited, and futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level. Taiwan Plastics' December quotes generally decreased, and the Indian market price is falling, with limited Indian demand. December is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC demand [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The PVC2605 contract increased in positions and moved in a sideways pattern, with a minimum price of 4,639 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 4,694 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 4,680 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.17%. The position increased by 40,723 hands to 890,154 hands [2] - Basis: On December 17, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 4,410 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,680 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 270 yuan/ton, strengthening by 4 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Affected by facilities such as Ningbo Zhengyang and Yibin Tianyuan, the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.46 percentage points to 79.43% week - on - week, continuing a slight decline and remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year from Wanhua Chemical, 400,000 tons/year from Tianjin Bohua, 200,000 tons/year from Qingdao Haiwan, 300,000 tons/year from Gansu Yaowang, and 300,000 tons/year from Jiaxing Jiahua have been put into operation in the second half of the year [4] - Demand: The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further drops in year - on - year growth rates. From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The sales area of commercial housing was 787.02 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8% (residential sales area decreased by 8.1%); the sales volume of commercial housing was 751.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1% (residential sales volume decreased by 11.2%). The new construction area of houses was 534.57 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.5% (residential new construction area decreased by 19.9%); the construction area of real estate development enterprises' houses was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. The completion area of houses was 394.54 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.0% (residential completion area decreased by 20.1%). The overall real estate market needs time to improve. As of the week of December 14, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 13.80% week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in recent years. Attention should be paid to whether real estate favorable policies can boost commercial housing sales [5] - Inventory: As of the week of December 11, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.03% week - on - week to 1.0593 million tons, 27.63% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory increased slightly and remains high (Longzhong increased the social storage capacity in East and South China from 21 to 41) [6]