能源日报-20251217

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] - Asphalt: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The global crude oil supply - demand is becoming looser. With the progress of peace talks and various news factors, the oil price fluctuates more violently [3]. - The positive progress of the US - Ukraine negotiation weakens the geopolitical risk premium, causing the fuel oil market to weaken. The low - sulfur fuel oil may have short - term support but is expected to be weak in the medium - term. The high - sulfur fuel oil has potential raw material fluctuations and medium - term market pressure [4]. - The price of the asphalt main contract rose about 3.6% due to the expected reduction of Venezuelan crude oil supply, which may lead to a tight supply of raw materials for asphalt production. It has a positive impact on asphalt and other heavy oil products [5]. 3. Summary by Category Crude oil - The API data shows that the US API crude oil inventory from December 12 decreased by 9.322 million barrels, far exceeding market expectations, but it did not boost oil prices [3]. - Trump's sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers and the positive progress of the US - Ukraine negotiation increase market concerns about oil supply and lead to intensified oil price fluctuations [3]. Fuel oil & Low - sulfur fuel oil - The positive progress of the US - Ukraine negotiation weakens the geopolitical risk premium, and the decline in crude oil prices drives the fuel oil market down [4]. - In the low - sulfur fuel oil market, the remaining low - sulfur quota in December is limited, production may shrink, and import demand may increase. The end - of - year shipping fuel peak season and unstable overseas refinery operations may provide short - term support, but it is expected to be weak in the medium - term [4]. - In the high - sulfur fuel oil market, US sanctions on Venezuela may affect the arrival of heavy high - sulfur raw materials, providing short - term support. However, rising inventories in Singapore and the Middle East and floating storage accumulation due to logistics blockages bring medium - term market pressure [4]. Asphalt - The asphalt main contract rose about 3.6%. Trump's sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers led to a drop in Venezuelan crude oil shipments to zero (excluding those to the US), and the expected reduction in raw material supply for domestic asphalt production boosted asphalt futures prices [5]. - The competition of local refineries for other heavy high - sulfur crude oils in the spot market may lead to tight global heavy crude oil supply, which is also beneficial to asphalt and other heavy oil products [5].