农产品日报-20251217

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ★☆★, suggesting a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities [1] - Soybean oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a bearish trend [1] - Palm oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a bearish outlook [1] - Rapeseed meal: ★☆☆, showing a bullish inclination but low operability [1] - Rapeseed oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish tendency with poor operability [1] - Corn: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - Live pigs: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish trend and appropriate investment chances [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading space [1] Core Views - The short - term policy is releasing supply to the market, while the new domestic soybean crop has a tightening supply and market hoarding sentiment [2] - The trading logic has changed, with concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a South American bumper harvest. Wait for South American weather changes and consider going long on the main 05 contract [3] - The main contracts of soybean and palm oil are falling, facing short - term downward pressure and high inventory pressure in the overseas palm oil market [4] - The domestic rapeseed sector is in a bearish trend dominated by supply, and attention should be paid to changes in trade policies [6] - The spot price of corn in the Northeast and North Ports has slightly declined, with the short - term Dalian corn futures 03 contract oscillating at a high level [7] - The live pig futures have increased in positions, and the spot price is strong, but there may be a second bottoming in the first half of next year [8] - The egg futures fluctuate narrowly, and the far - month contracts lack upward momentum. The industry fundamentals are gradually improving [9] Summary by Related Categories Soybean - Domestic soybean decline has slowed down, with a trading average price of 4030 yuan/ton and a rotation - in floor price of 4000 yuan/ton. Imported soybeans had an auction volume of 513,000 tons, with an average transaction price of 3852.1 yuan/ton and a transaction ratio of 62.9% [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - South American weather has improved, and the US soybean futures price has fallen to a key position. Wait for South American weather changes to go long on the main 05 contract [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The main contracts of soybean and palm oil have fallen below the lower edge of the range, and there is short - term downward pressure. The Malaysian palm oil market faces high inventory pressure [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed sector has fallen significantly. The Australian rapeseed is about to be pressed, and the Canadian rapeseed price is low. The sector is in a supply - dominated bearish trend [6] Corn - The spot price of corn in the Northeast has slightly declined, and the procurement in North China has cooled down. The short - term Dalian corn 03 contract oscillates at a high level [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures have added over 10,000 lots. The spot price is strong this weekend, but there may be a second bottoming in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - The egg futures fluctuate narrowly, and the far - month contracts lack upward momentum. The industry is in a fundamental improvement stage [9]