Boeing(US:BA) First Shanghai Securities·2025-12-17 12:49Group 1: Boeing Financial Performance - Boeing reported Q3 2025 revenue of $23.27 billion, a 30% year-over-year increase, exceeding Bloomberg consensus of $21.9 billion[6] - The company experienced a GAAP net loss of $5.34 billion, translating to a loss of $7.14 per share, which was worse than the expected loss of $2.31 per share[6] - Operating cash flow for the quarter was $1.12 billion, with free cash flow turning positive at $240 million, marking the first positive cash flow since Q4 2023[6] Group 2: Production and Delivery Outlook - Boeing's BCA segment revenue reached $11.09 billion, up 49.1% year-over-year, despite an operating loss of $5.35 billion[7] - The production rate for the 737 MAX is expected to increase to 42 aircraft per month by October 2025, with capital expenditures projected to rise in 2026 to support a 12-14 aircraft monthly production rate for the 787[7] - The delivery schedule for the 777X is critical for the company's cash flow recovery, with expectations of breakeven cash flow around 2028[8] Group 3: Valuation and Rating - The target price for Boeing is set at $240.00, representing a 16.79% upside from the current price of $205.50[5] - A DCF model was used for valuation, with a WACC of 8.5% and a perpetual growth rate of 2%[9] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating based on projected production and delivery improvements from 2025 to 2027[9] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Risks include slow consumer confidence recovery due to accidents, competition from Airbus A320Neo and A350 affecting market share, and geopolitical tensions between the US and China[10]