新行业比较框架之五：从一维到二维，景气投资再解析

Core Insights - The report introduces a new two-dimensional framework for analyzing industry prosperity, focusing on diffusion and dispersion metrics to provide a fresh perspective on investment strategies [1][2]. - It emphasizes the importance of absolute high prosperity over marginal high prosperity, indicating that long-term perspectives yield higher returns on earnings per share (EPS) [2][16]. - The report constructs a prosperity investment effectiveness index based on quarterly year-over-year (Q-YOY) data, which shows better performance than cumulative year-over-year (C-YOY) data [2][23]. Traditional One-Dimensional Prosperity Comparison - The report critiques the traditional one-dimensional approach that uses a single profitability growth rate for each industry, which simplifies market narratives to "who is accelerating and who is declining" [2][12]. - It raises questions about the importance of single-quarter versus cumulative profitability data, concluding that single-quarter data yields better investment outcomes [2][12][16]. - The report highlights that absolute high prosperity is more significant than marginal high prosperity, as evidenced by better net value performance in absolute high prosperity groups [2][16]. Two-Dimensional Prosperity Measurement - The report proposes measuring structural prosperity through two indicators: diffusion (measuring breadth) and dispersion (measuring structural strength) [2][2]. - It notes that the diffusion index influences "positioning," while the dispersion index affects "industry allocation bias" [2][2]. - The report suggests that the dispersion index is highly correlated with China's Producer Price Index (PPI), indicating that higher dispersion often coincides with rising PPI phases [2][14]. Application of the Two-Dimensional Framework - The report discusses the strategic value of diffusion and dispersion, asserting that they can better reflect the current market state than traditional methods [2][2]. - It emphasizes the need to analyze the composition of dispersion values to understand structural market trends, particularly in technology sectors [2][21]. - The report concludes that differentiation is the foundation of effective prosperity investment, with expectations for continued upward trends in diffusion and dispersion indices [2][24]. Conclusion and Outlook - The report anticipates that both diffusion and dispersion will likely trend upward, supporting the market's beta value [2][24]. - It recommends focusing on technology sectors such as computers, communications, and advanced manufacturing, as well as cyclical resource sectors like steel and chemicals [2][24].