美国 10-11 月非农数据点评：就业不温不火，降息条件未熟

Employment Data Overview - In November, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 50,000[2] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than the anticipated 4.4%[2] - In October, non-farm employment decreased by 105,000, primarily due to a reduction of 157,000 jobs in the government sector[4] Sector Performance - The private sector added 52,000 jobs in October, while November saw an increase of 69,000 jobs[3] - Education and healthcare sectors were significant contributors, adding 65,000 jobs in November[8] - The construction sector improved with an addition of 28,000 jobs in November[8] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate increased, contributing to the rise in the unemployment rate[14] - The unemployment rate for Black or African American individuals rose significantly, indicating structural issues in the labor market[14] - Average duration of unemployment decreased, suggesting some easing in re-employment pressures[16] Wage Trends - Average wage growth showed signs of slowing, with service sector wages dropping to approximately 3.4% year-on-year[20] - Wage growth in the goods-producing sector remained stable at around 4.0%[20] Monetary Policy Implications - Following the employment data release, the market slightly increased expectations for a rate cut in January, now at 26%[23] - The Federal Reserve is likely to consider a 25 basis point rate cut in March, contingent on further employment data[23]