Group 1: Financial Futures Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with a more dovish tone. The US employment market is cooling, and the domestic economy continues the "seeking progress while maintaining stability" policy. The RMB exchange rate is likely to be moderately stronger in the short term, but there are potential risks. The stock index is in a shrinking adjustment, and the bond market can be bullish in the medium - term [2][5][6]. Summary by Directory - Macro: The US unemployment rate reached a four - year high. Investment and consumption growth are expected to recover next year, and the real estate supply side should control incremental and revitalize inventory [1]. - RMB Exchange Rate: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and it is likely to be moderately stronger in the short term, supported by policies, exchange rate characteristics, and internal - external environment. However, there are potential risks such as high long - positions in the USD/HKD market and the impact of the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hike [3][5][6]. - Stock Index: The stock index fell collectively, and the US non - farm data had limited impact. The market is expected to stabilize and rebound after continuous adjustments, but the upward drive is insufficient [6][7]. - Treasury Bonds: The bond market is weak, but there is no need to be pessimistic from the fundamental perspective. Mid - term long positions can be held, and short - term trading should control positions [8]. - Container Shipping to Europe: The market is in a long - short tug - of war, with positive factors such as spot price increases and seasonal cargo volume, and negative factors such as the expectation of resuming navigation and future supply - demand pressure [9][10][11]. Group 2: Commodities Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The prices of precious metals are expected to rise in the medium - long term, with short - term high - level fluctuations. Base metals have different trends, and energy - chemical products are affected by various factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitics [15][18][20]. Summary by Directory - Precious Metals - Platinum & Palladium: The prices rose at night, and are expected to be boosted by central bank gold purchases and investment demand in the medium - long term. Attention should be paid to the internal - external price difference [13][14][15]. - Gold & Silver: The prices were in high - level fluctuations. The US non - farm data had limited impact on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. Short - term high - level fluctuations are expected, and it is bullish in the medium - long term [16][17][18]. - Base Metals - Copper: The price was in high - level adjustment. The non - farm data had little impact, and it is necessary to wait for the recovery of trading volume to determine the trend [19][20]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: Aluminum is expected to be in shock - strengthening, alumina in weak operation, and cast aluminum alloy in shock - strengthening. The macro - drive is suspended, and the fundamentals are different [23][24]. - Zinc: The downstream receiving capacity is limited, and it is in weak operation, with short - term wide - range fluctuations expected [28]. - Nickel & Stainless Steel: The prices fell sharply due to market sentiment. The fundamentals of nickel are complex, and stainless steel is affected by export regulations [28][29]. - Tin: The price was in technical adjustment, and it is expected to be in wide - range fluctuations in the short term, with opportunities to enter the market on dips [30][31]. - Lead: The price was under pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17500 in the short term, with strong support around 16500 [36]. - Energy - Chemical Products - Paper Pulp - Offset Paper: The pulp spot price fell, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The offset paper is affected by the pulp price and supply [46][47][48]. - Crude Oil: The price hit a new low this year, and it is expected to be in weak fluctuations in the short term, with attention paid to EIA inventory [49][50]. - LPG: The price was stable while crude oil fell. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was stable [51][52]. - PTA - PX: There is no obvious upward drive, and it will fluctuate with the cost side. The downstream polyester demand is expected to be high in the short term, but the negative feedback will be transmitted in December [53][54][55]. - MEG - Bottle Chips: The supply negative feedback appears, and the price is under pressure in the long - term, with the short - term valuation fluctuating with the macro - sentiment [56][57]. - Methanol: Maintain the reverse spread strategy [59]. - PP: The cost side provides strong support, and the supply pressure may be relieved in January, with potential for a short - term rebound [60][61][62]. - PE: The supply is increasing while the demand is decreasing, and the upward space is limited. The PP supply - demand expectation is better than that of PE [63][64]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene: Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, and styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [66]. - Fuel Oil: The high - sulfur fuel oil cracking is weak, and the low - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to rise [67][68]. - Asphalt: The bottom space is limited, and it is in shock in the short term, with attention paid to the winter - storage policy [69][70]. - Rubber: The price center is moving up in shock. Natural rubber is in a wide - range shock, and synthetic rubber is running strongly with limited upward space [73][74]. - Urea: The market is in the range between fundamentals and policies, with the 01 contract expected to continue to fluctuate [75][76]. - Soda Ash & Caustic Soda: Soda ash is waiting for new supply variables, glass is affected by cold - repair and inventory, and caustic soda is expected to be in weak fluctuations [76][77][78]. - Log: The price is in low - level shock, with high uncertainty in trading [79][80][81]. - Propylene: It is in shock, with a loose supply situation and unchanged supply - demand pressure [81][82]. Group 3: Agricultural Products Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The supply - demand situations of different agricultural products vary, with some having short - term pressure and others having long - term potential [84][86][89]. Summary by Directory - Hogs: The supply - demand in the peak season needs verification. The long - term can be bullish, but the short - term is based on fundamentals [83][84]. - Oilseeds: The outer market is weak, and the domestic soybean meal is in a positive spread in the short term. Wait for low - buying opportunities [85][86]. - Oils: The delay of the US biofuel policy makes the oils market weak [87]. - Cotton: The domestic downstream shows resilience, and it may rise in the medium - long term, with short - term pressure. Consider buying on dips [89]. - Sugar: The price is in weak decline [90][91]. - Eggs: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is excessive, but there is a short - term rebound opportunity. Be cautious with long positions [92]. - Apples: The price stops falling and rebounds. Consider buying on dips [93][94]. - Jujubes: The new jujube harvest is almost completed. The short - term price may have limited downward space, and pay attention to downstream pre - holiday procurement [95].
金融期货早评-20251217
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-12-17 02:24