金信期货日刊-20251218

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US November non - farm payrolls had mixed results. The non - farm employment population increased by 64,000, higher than the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate reached 4.6%, a four - year high and above the expected 4.4%. The average hourly wage annual and monthly rates were lower than expected [3]. - The medium - to - long - term upward logic of Shanghai silver remains intact, but short - term high - level shock and correction should be guarded against. The industrial demand for silver from photovoltaic and new energy vehicles accounts for over 58%, with a supply - demand gap of about 5,000 tons in 2025, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is at a five - year low [3]. - The Fed cut interest rates in December 2025, and the expectation of rate cuts in 2026 continues. The weakening of the US dollar strengthens the financial attribute of silver, and funds continue to flow in. However, there are short - term risks such as high gains this year, overbought technical indicators, and increased pressure for profit - taking [4]. - In the stock market, A - shares rebounded, and it is likely that there will be no C - wave decline. The stock index is recommended to be bought on dips in the short term [7][8]. - Gold shows signs of upward movement after a period of sideways shock and can be considered for long positions [11]. - Iron ore is in a supply - demand situation with increasing supply and weak domestic demand support. It is recommended to trade within a wide range [13][14]. - Glass is still in a downward trend, and a bearish view with a shock pattern is maintained [17][18]. - For palm oil, if Malaysian palm oil exports remain weak in December during the production - reduction season, there may be inventory accumulation, and short - selling opportunities should be grasped [19]. - For pulp, with domestic policies boosting domestic demand, overseas pulp mills reducing production, and the elimination of backward papermaking capacity, the demand for commercial pulp is expected to improve, and a shock pattern is expected [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - US November non - farm payrolls: The non - farm employment population increased by 64,000, the unemployment rate was 4.6%, and the average hourly wage annual and monthly rates were 3.5% and 0.1% respectively [3]. - Shanghai silver: Closed up 5.05% to 15,006 yuan on December 17. The medium - to - long - term upward logic is intact, but short - term risks exist [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock index futures: The market is likely to be a double - bottom structure, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the short term [7]. - Gold: Shows signs of upward movement after sideways shock, and long positions can be tried [11]. - Iron ore: With increasing supply and weak domestic demand, it is recommended to trade within a wide range [13][14]. - Glass: The downward trend has not reversed, and a bearish view with a shock pattern is maintained [17][18]. - Palm oil: If exports are weak in December, there may be inventory accumulation, and short - selling opportunities should be grasped [19]. - Pulp: The demand is expected to improve, and a shock pattern is expected [22].