光大证券晨会速递-20251218

Group 1: Macro Analysis - Tax revenue growth has declined from high levels, while non-tax revenue shows marginal improvement, and government spending has significantly increased, particularly in infrastructure and employment-related budgets [2] - Local government debt limits have been set and used to supplement local government financial resources, leading to improved government fund revenues [2] - The issuance of new special bonds for the year is nearing completion, which is beneficial for stabilizing infrastructure investment [2] Group 2: Employment and Economic Outlook - The unemployment rate in the U.S. unexpectedly rose to 4.6% in November, attributed to a "technical" disturbance from government shutdowns, with many federal employees on forced leave counted as unemployed [3] - Despite the rise in unemployment, the private sector remains resilient, with the goods-producing sector adding 19,000 jobs, the highest since May 2025 [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious approach to interest rate cuts in the short term, despite the unexpected rise in unemployment [3] Group 3: Company Research - Chiwan Technology - Chiwan Technology (9911.HK) is positioned as a leading player in overseas social media, focusing on a "bush" product matrix strategy [4] - The company has demonstrated a clear path to growth and profitability through successful product replication strategies and extensive layout in emerging social entertainment markets [4] - Revenue projections for Chiwan Technology are estimated at 6.9 billion, 8.41 billion, and 9.7 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with net profits expected to be 0.95 billion, 1.24 billion, and 1.49 billion RMB respectively [4] - The company is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 14.5 HKD [4]