东海证券晨会纪要-20251217

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the growth opportunities in AI infrastructure-related equipment, projecting a significant increase in global investment in generative AI, expected to rise from $315.9 billion in 2024 to $1,261.9 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.9% [5][6] - North American internet giants are significantly increasing capital expenditures, with a total of $258.56 billion in 2024, marking a 58.05% year-on-year increase, focusing on AI infrastructure [6] - The demand for PCB (Printed Circuit Board) is expected to rise due to the growth in computing power, with manufacturers expanding production capacity and transitioning to high-end production [6] Group 2 - Domestic demand remains under pressure, with November retail sales growth at 1.3%, down from 2.9% in the previous month, and fixed asset investment showing a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% [8][10] - The report highlights the need for policy measures to stabilize investment and support the real estate market, with a focus on increasing residents' income and expanding quality consumption supply [10][12] - The manufacturing investment decline has narrowed to 4.5% year-on-year, with certain sectors like transportation equipment and automobiles showing strong growth [14] Group 3 - Short-term loans and bond financing for enterprises are performing well, with a notable increase in short-term loans by 1,000 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting strong liquidity support for small and medium-sized enterprises [18][21] - The report indicates that the overall credit growth is expected to focus on structural optimization, with a shift towards supporting technology innovation and consumer infrastructure [19][21] - The monetary policy is anticipated to remain stable, with potential for further easing if necessary, while the banking sector is expected to maintain asset quality stability [20][21]