中国期货每日简报-20251218

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 17, equity index futures and CGB rose; metal futures advanced, with lithium carbonate and precious metals leading the gains [2][10][12][13] - From January to November, China's general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% YoY, while the revenue from the transfer of land - use rights dropped by 10.7% YoY [1][3][38][39][40] - The "lowest price online" requirement for merchants by platforms may constitute monopoly, and the Anti - Monopoly Compliance Guidelines for Internet Platforms (Draft for Public Comment) identifies 8 new types of monopoly risks [41][42][43] - From January to November, securities transaction stamp duty reached 185.5 billion yuan, surging 70.7% YoY [43] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On December 17, equity index futures and CGB rose; metal futures advanced. China's financial futures: IC rose by 2.0%, IM rose by 1.5%, TL rose by 0.6% [10][12] - In commodity futures, the top three gainers are lithium carbonate (up 7.6%, open interest up 0.4% MoM), platinum (up 7.0%, open interest up 26.3% MoM), and palladium (up 7.0%, open interest up 30.3% MoM). The top three decliners are rapeseed oil (down 1.7%, open interest up 5.1% MoM), ethenylbenzene (down 1.4%, open interest up 33.9% MoM), and No.2 Soybean (down 1.4%, open interest down 17.2% MoM) [11][12][13] 3.1.2 Daily Raise 3.1.2.1 Lithium Carbonate - On December 17th, lithium carbonate rose 7.6% to 108,620 yuan per ton [17][21] - The public notice of cancelling 27 mining rights in Yichun has a greater impact on market sentiment than substantive impact. Currently, lithium carbonate has strong supply and demand but may face marginal weakness. The resumption of production at Jianxiawo Mine and off - season demand are key trading points. Short - term prices are expected to remain high, and January's production scheduling and Jianxiawo Mine's resumption news are key factors [18][19][20][21][22][23] 3.1.2.2 Platinum - On December 17th, platinum rose 7.0% to 527.55 yuan per gram [27][31] - U.S. non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate data slightly lifted market expectations for a Fed rate cut in January next year, and tightening spot supply supports platinum prices. In the future, South Africa faces supply risks, and the platinum market is in a structural expansion phase. Overall, platinum prices are expected to remain firm [28][29][30][31] 3.1.2.3 Palladium - On December 17th, palladium rose 7.0% to 455.15 yuan per gram [33][35] - Russian geopolitical tensions cause short - term supply tightness, while palladium faces significant structural pressure on the demand side. Although long - term supply - demand tends to loosen, short - term physical tightness and the Fed's rate - cut cycle support palladium prices [34][35] 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - From January to November, China's national general public budget revenue reached 20.0516 trillion yuan, a YoY increase of 0.8%. National tax revenue was 16.4814 trillion yuan, up 1.8% YoY; non - tax revenue was 3.5702 trillion yuan, down 3.7% YoY [38][40] - From January to November, national government - managed fund budget revenue was 4.0274 trillion yuan, a YoY decrease of 4.9%. Central government - managed fund budget revenue was 393.8 billion yuan, up 0.6% YoY; local government - managed fund budget revenue at the provincial level was 3.6336 trillion yuan, down 5.5% YoY. Revenue from the transfer of state - owned land - use rights was 2.9119 trillion yuan, a YoY drop of 10.7% [39][40] 3.2.2 Industry News - Platforms mandating merchants to offer the "lowest price online" may constitute abuse of dominant market position or monopoly agreement. The Anti - Monopoly Compliance Guidelines for Internet Platforms (Draft for Public Comment) identifies 8 new types of monopoly risks [41][42][43] - From January to November, stamp duty revenue totaled 404.4 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 27%. Among this, securities transaction stamp duty reached 185.5 billion yuan, surging 70.7% YoY [43]