静待宏观面进一步明朗，基本金属震荡整固

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The macro - view is expected to be positive, with the Fed's actions and China's central economic work conference setting a good tone. However, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are volatile. The raw material supply is tight and may affect the smelting end. The current supply - demand improvement of basic metals has slowed down, but the future supply - demand is expected to be tight. In the short - to - medium term, supply concerns support prices, and positive demand expectations may boost basic metals, but high prices and volatile Fed expectations may limit price increases. In the long term, potential stimulus policies in China and supply disturbances in copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to drive up their prices. It is advisable to focus on opportunities for low - buying and long - holding of copper, aluminum, and tin [2]. 3. Summary of Each Variety Copper - View: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices fluctuate at a high level, with a medium - term outlook of being volatile and bullish [7][8][9]. - Analysis: The US unemployment rate is high, and the Fed's interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion support copper prices. The supply of copper ore is tight, and CSPT plans to reduce production in 2026. Demand is weak in the off - season, and inventory is rising. LME's plan to set position limits weakens the upward momentum of copper prices [7][8][9]. Alumina - View: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure, with a medium - term outlook of being volatile [9][10][11]. - Analysis: Macro sentiment affects the market. The supply reduction is insufficient, and the cost support is weak. The warehouse receipts are decreasing, but there is pressure on the price due to factors such as expired warehouse receipts and regional premium adjustments. The price may fluctuate more as more funds focus on it [9][10][11]. Aluminum - View: Mozal Aluminum Plant may shut down, and aluminum prices fluctuate at a high level, with a medium - term outlook of being volatile and bullish [13][14]. - Analysis: The macro - view is positive. Domestically, production capacity and operating rate are high, while overseas power shortages may tighten supply. High prices suppress demand, and inventory is accumulating. Overall, the short - term is volatile and bullish, and the medium - term price center may rise [13][14]. Aluminum Alloy - View: Pay attention to demand changes, and the market fluctuates at a high level, with a medium - term outlook of being volatile and bullish [15]. - Analysis: The cost is supported by tight scrap aluminum supply. Supply may decrease due to environmental policies and unclear policies. Demand may weaken after the end of the year - end car sales season. With cost support and stable supply - demand, the short - and medium - term prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [15]. Zinc - View: LME zinc inventory has risen to nearly 100,000 tons, and zinc prices fluctuate downward, with an overall outlook of being volatile [18][19]. - Analysis: The macro - view is positive. The short - term supply of zinc ore is tight, and production costs are rising. Demand is in the off - season. The short - term price may be volatile, and the long - term price may decline due to increased supply and limited demand growth [18][19]. Lead - View: LME lead inventory has increased significantly, and lead prices fluctuate downward, with an overall outlook of being volatile [20][21]. - Analysis: The spot premium is rising, and the supply is affected by smelter overhauls. Demand is relatively stable with some battery enterprises planning to increase production. However, the increase in LME inventory suppresses the price [20][21]. Nickel - View: Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the RKAB of nickel ore, and nickel prices rebound, with an overall outlook of being volatile [21][23][26]. - Analysis: The current supply is still under pressure, and demand is weak in the off - season. However, if Indonesia's RKAB plan is implemented, the oversupply situation in 2026 may improve significantly [21][23][26]. Stainless Steel - View: The rebound of nickel prices drives up the stainless - steel market, with an overall outlook of being range - bound [27][28]. - Analysis: The cost is supported by raw materials, but production is expected to decrease in December. The inventory may accumulate in the off - season, and the price is likely to be range - bound [27][28]. Tin - View: The downstream rigid demand is resilient, and tin prices fluctuate upward, with a medium - term outlook of being volatile and bullish [28][29]. - Analysis: Supply is restricted by issues such as slow复产 in mines, RKAB approvals in Indonesia, and political instability in Africa. Demand is growing in industries like semiconductors, photovoltaics, and new - energy vehicles, which will drive up the tin price [28][29]. 4. Market Index - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index, specialty index, and PPI commodity index all showed positive growth on December 17, 2025. For example, the commodity index was 2262.95, up 0.56% [155]. - Sector Index: The non - ferrous metals index on December 17, 2025, had a daily increase of 0.74%, a 5 - day increase of 0.25%, a 1 - month increase of 3.62%, and a year - to - date increase of 10.52% [156].