股市反攻，债市情绪修复

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The rebound of the stock index futures market needs to be observed for its sustainability. The stock market rebounded on Wednesday, but there are uncertainties in the late - December trend, and it is recommended to deal with it with high - dividend and price - rising chains [1][7]. - The short - term amplitude of stock index options has increased, and the mid - term situation still needs to be observed. It is recommended to choose protective puts for short - term defense [2][7]. - The sentiment in the bond market has improved. The capital side is expected to continue to support the bond market sentiment, but caution is still needed for the ultra - long - term [3][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts were - 1.68 points, - 4.48 points, 8.97 points, and 6.26 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of - 3.52 points, - 1.09 points, 0.08 points, and - 1.12 points. The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 21.0 points, 6.2 points, 9.0 points, and 67.0 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 1.6 points, 0.4 points, - 11.8 points, and - 4.6 points. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by - 628 lots, - 1896 lots, 2748 lots, and - 9704 lots [7]. - The stock market rebounded on Wednesday, with the ChiNext and STAR 50 leading the gains, both rising more than 2%. The TMT and new energy vehicle chains were active, and the market volume rose to 1.83 trillion. The number of limit - up stocks was 57, and the number of limit - down stocks was 25. The relatively small number of limit - up stocks indicated a general rise in the market. ETFs saw significant volume in the afternoon, which may have a positive impact on market sentiment. However, there are uncertainties in the late - December trend, and it is recommended to hold IC and the dividend index [1][7]. Stock Index Options - The total turnover of the options market exceeded 10 billion yuan for the first time in nearly a month. Due to the market rebound, the proportion of intraday call option trading volume increased, the PCR of open interest rebounded, and the ratio PCR decreased significantly. The indicators basically returned to the level of two days ago, showing a volatile sentiment. The volatility of each variety has increased compared to two days ago, but the overall level is still at a relatively low level since July. It is recommended to choose protective puts for short - term defense [2][7]. Treasury Bond Futures - The trading volume and open interest of T, TF, TS, and TL current - quarter contracts changed. The spreads between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts, cross - variety spreads, and basis also changed. The central bank carried out 46.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 189.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day [7][8]. - Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts rose 0.10%, 0.06%, 0.01%, and 0.63% respectively. The bond market sentiment improved, and the interest rates of all maturities decreased, with the ultra - long - term decreasing relatively more. The capital side was relatively loose, and the market's expectation of loose monetary policy increased, which supported the long - position sentiment in the bond market. The ultra - long - term may have an oversold rebound. It is recommended to adopt a volatile trend strategy, pay attention to short - position hedging at low basis levels, appropriately pay attention to the widening of the basis, and expect the yield curve to remain steep [3][9][10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - On December 15, 2025, China's reserve currency in November was 3.8019683 trillion yuan, compared with the previous value of 3.7780993 trillion yuan [12]. - On December 16, 2025, the seasonally - adjusted change in non - farm payrolls in the US in November was 64,000, compared with the previous value of - 105,000 and the forecast value of 50,000 [12]. - On December 18, 2025, the seasonally - adjusted year - on - year core CPI in the US in November was not announced yet, with the previous value of 3%. On December 19, 2025, the year - on - year PCE price index in the US in November was not announced yet, with the previous value of 2.79% [12]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - Domestic macro: On December 17, the central bank carried out 46.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 143 billion yuan. In the first 11 months, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in Sichuan increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.5% year - on - year. In Shaanxi, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 7.5% year - on - year. In November, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in Henan increased by 8.0% year - on - year [13]. - Non - ferrous metals: On December 15, the inventories of zinc, lead, tin, and copper reached new highs in several months, with significant increases in changes. The inventories of nickel and aluminum decreased, and the inventories of aluminum alloy and cobalt remained stable at low levels [14]. - Energy and chemical industry: The 2026 regulatory work meeting of the National Energy Administration was held in Beijing. It was required to strengthen energy supervision law enforcement and ensure the safety of the energy and power system [14]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring No specific data summaries were provided in the given text for this part.