山金期货黑色板块日报-20251218

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Overall: The black - metal industry is in a state of weak supply and demand during the consumption off - season, with significant inventory pressure. For steel products, the cost support has weakened due to the sharp decline in coking coal prices. For iron ore, the decline in steel production suppresses raw material prices, and the rising port inventory also exerts pressure on futures prices [2][5]. - Operation Suggestions: For both steel products (thread and hot - rolled coil) and iron ore, it is recommended to hold long positions lightly. For steel products, short - selling is not recommended at the current position. For iron ore, a mid - term trading approach with an oscillatory mindset should be adopted, avoiding chasing highs or selling lows [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply and Demand: Last week, the production of thread and hot - rolled coil decreased, and the overall inventory continued to decline. However, the inventory of hot - rolled coil was still significantly higher than the same period in previous years, and the de - stocking pressure of thread was relatively small. The apparent demand declined overall, and the market was in a state of weak supply and demand. As the steel mill's gross profit dropped significantly and the consumption peak has passed, the steel production is expected to continue to decline slowly [2]. - Cost: The sharp decline in coking coal prices has weakened the cost support for steel [2]. - Technical Analysis: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract of steel briefly fell below the oscillation range and then rebounded quickly. Currently, it has not broken out of the recent oscillation range or formed a downward breakthrough [2]. - Data: - Prices: The closing prices of the main contracts of thread steel and hot - rolled coil showed different changes compared to the previous day and week. The spot prices of some products remained unchanged or decreased slightly [3]. - Production: The production of national building material steel mills' thread steel and hot - rolled coil decreased week - on - week. The production of electric - arc furnace steel mills' thread steel increased significantly [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory of five major steel products and thread decreased, while the social inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly. The steel mill inventory of five major steel products and hot - rolled coil increased, while the steel mill inventory of thread decreased [3]. - Apparent Demand: The apparent demand of five major steel products, thread, and hot - rolled coil decreased week - on - week [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Demand: The production and apparent demand of five major steel products decreased last week. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, the molten iron production is likely to decline seasonally. The steel mill's production reduction suppresses the raw material prices. The pre - holiday replenishment demand will come later this year due to the late Spring Festival [5]. - Supply: Global iron ore shipments are still at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventory suppresses the futures prices [5]. - Technical Analysis: The 05 contract of iron ore has not broken out of the wide - range oscillation at a relatively high level [5]. - Data: - Prices: The spot and futures prices of iron ore showed different changes compared to the previous day and week. The prices of various iron ore powder products in different ports also changed [5]. - Shipments: The Australian iron ore shipments decreased, while the Brazilian iron ore shipments increased significantly [5]. - Inventory: The port inventory of iron ore increased, while the sintered powder inventory of imported ore in 64 sample steel mills decreased [5]. 3.3 Industry News - As of the week ending December 17, according to Zhaogang.com data, the national building material production increased, the factory inventory increased slightly, the social inventory decreased, and the total inventory decreased. The apparent demand increased [7]. - The government of Amapá state in Brazil plans to restart the iron ore production of the Amapá project, which is expected to attract up to $200 million in investment. Cadence recently raised $6 million on the London Stock Exchange to resume the operation of the Azteca small - scale mine, with an expected annual production of 380,000 - 400,000 tons of iron concentrate [7].