美国制裁委内瑞拉扰动原油市场，沥?和甲醇表现偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry continues to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to close short positions on a phased basis. Geopolitical factors such as the situations in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela are continuously disturbing the market, and the oil price will continue to oscillate. Different chemical products show different trends due to factors such as raw material supply, device status, and market demand [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - Crude Oil: Geopolitical factors in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela are continuously disturbing, and the oil price continues to oscillate. The EIA data shows a seasonal pattern of crude oil inventory reduction and gasoline and diesel inventory accumulation in the US last week. Geopolitical factors dominate short - term fluctuations [8]. - Asphalt: Anticipated disruptions in raw material supply cause a sharp rise in asphalt futures prices. If there is a substantial supply cut, the asphalt futures price will be strong; otherwise, it may rise and then fall. The asphalt market has weak supply and demand, and the demand is in the off - season [9]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The price of high - sulfur fuel oil is driven up by the escalating situation between the US and Venezuela. However, the demand outlook is currently suppressed by high - level floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region [10]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with the crude oil price. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Currently, its valuation is low [13]. - PX: The cost decline slows down, and PX profitability continues to expand. The polyester load remains high, and the market expects a tight supply of raw materials in 2026, so PX is likely to rise easily and fall difficult in the short term [14]. - PTA: It follows the rise of upstream costs, and the spot basis remains firm. The overall supply - demand pattern of near - month PTA is relatively tight, and the profit has stronger support below [15]. - Pure Benzene: It is in a state of weak reality and divided expectations. The recent trading focuses on far - month device maintenance and storage pressure. The market has different expectations for the balance in Q1 2026 [17][19]. - Styrene: Both upward and downward movements are restricted, and it oscillates. The support from crude oil and the cost side is insufficient, but its own supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in December [21]. - Ethylene Glycol: Factories reduce production to maintain prices, and ethylene glycol rebounds after an over - decline. In the short term, the supply - demand pressure eases slightly, but the long - term inventory accumulation pattern remains [22]. - Short - Fiber: The decline in upstream costs eases, and the short - fiber price fluctuates with the upstream. The factory inventory decreases slightly, and the support for processing fees below is enhanced [24][26]. - Polyester Bottle Chip: The price is supported by upstream raw material costs. It follows the rise of upstream polyester raw materials, but the price increase is limited due to the restart of some devices [28][29]. - Methanol: Overseas disturbances occur again, and methanol is expected to oscillate strongly. The port inventory decreases, and there are expectations of supply reduction in the Middle East and non - Iranian sources [30][31]. - Urea: A new round of Indian tenders and enterprise inventory - reduction information boost the market, and the futures price rebounds temporarily. The actual fundamental support is insufficient, and the impact of Indian tenders on the domestic market is relatively limited [32][34]. - Plastic: The oil price weakens, and the support from maintenance is limited. It oscillates weakly. The fundamental support is limited, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season [36]. - PP: The expectation of maintenance provides support, and it oscillates. The PDH profit is under short - term pressure, and the supply - demand pattern is still under pressure [37]. - PL: The spot is strong, and the expectation of PDH maintenance provides support. It oscillates. The PDH maintenance expectation has a boosting effect, but the short - term powder profit is under pressure [38]. - PVC: The exit of overseas devices boosts market sentiment. However, the over - supply expectation in the PVC market has not been reversed, and it is expected to oscillate in the medium term [39]. - Caustic Soda: It has a low valuation and weak expectations and is likely to oscillate. There is short - term inventory reduction, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand is under pressure [40][41]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - Period Spread: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. are provided, showing the latest values and changes [43]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, including the latest values and changes [44]. - Inter - Variety Spread: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are given, along with the latest values and changes [45]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summaries are provided in the given text for this part, only the variety names are mentioned. 3.3 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index, specialty index, and PPI commodity index all show an upward trend on December 17, 2025 [285]. - Sector Index: The energy index on December 17, 2025 shows a decline. The daily, 5 - day, 1 - month, and year - to - date percentage changes are - 0.69%, - 2.18%, - 7.35%, and - 12.62% respectively [286].