铂价再度涨停，内盘高溢价下关注内外正套

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Platinum: The report suggests that the platinum price is expected to be volatile and bullish. It recommends paying attention to opportunities such as low - cost buying, long platinum and short palladium, and positive spreads between domestic and foreign markets [2]. - Palladium: In the short - term, palladium prices are likely to be strong due to spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment. However, in the long - term, it is subject to weakening supply - demand fundamentals [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Platinum - Price Performance: On December 17, 2025, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 527.55 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 7% [1]. - Main Logic: The macro - environment provides support as the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January 2026 has slightly increased. The supply is tightening, and there is a significant price difference between domestic and foreign markets, presenting an arbitrage opportunity. South Africa, the main supply country, faces power and weather risks. Demand is expanding in various fields, and the "rate cut + soft landing" scenario will increase price elasticity [2]. - Outlook: With a healthy supply - demand situation and positive macro - expectations, the platinum price is expected to be volatile and bullish. Investment opportunities such as low - cost buying, long platinum and short palladium, and positive spreads between domestic and foreign markets are recommended [2]. Palladium - Price Performance: On December 17, 2025, the closing price of the palladium main contract was 455.15 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 6.99% [1]. - Main Logic: The key supply disruption is the Russian geopolitical issue. The US investigation into Russian palladium imports has led to a temporary supply shortage. Palladium demand shows significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand is loosening, short - term shortages and a Fed rate - cut cycle support the price [3]. - Outlook: Given the spot shortage and a favorable macro - environment, the palladium price has strong bottom support. In the short - term, low - cost buying is recommended, while in the long - term, it will be subject to weakening supply - demand fundamentals [3]. Commodity Indexes - Characteristic Indexes: On December 17, 2025, the commodity index was 2262.95, up 0.56%; the commodity 20 index was 2590.35, up 0.57%; the industrial products index was 2189.88, up 0.45%; the PPI commodity index was 1358.64, up 0.52% [47]. - Sector Indexes: The non - ferrous metals index on December 17, 2025, was 2551.16, with a daily increase of 0.74%, a 5 - day increase of 0.25%, a 1 - month increase of 3.62%, and a year - to - date increase of 10.52% [48].