政策及冬储预期仍有?撑，盘?表现偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy tone remains positive, and there is still an expectation of winter storage replenishment. Although the fundamentals in the off - season are not good, it is expected that the futures market will still have room for a low - level rebound [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Iron Ore: The spot price has risen while the trading volume has weakened. Overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume has also increased significantly. The demand for iron ore is weakening, and the port inventory is accumulating. The short - term ore price is expected to oscillate [7] - Scrap Steel: The supply and demand are relatively stable, and the inventory is accumulating. The profit of electric furnaces is good, and the demand from long - and short - process steel enterprises still has support. The spot price is expected to oscillate [9] Carbon Element - Coke: The cost support is weak, but the coking and steel enterprises will gradually start winter storage replenishment of raw materials. The current futures valuation is too low, and there is insufficient driving force for a further significant decline. It is expected to follow the oscillation of coking coal [2][10] - Coking Coal: As the New Year approaches and winter storage begins, the spot trading of coking coal is expected to improve, and the fundamentals and market sentiment will gradually recover. The futures valuation may be repaired upwards [2][11] Alloys - Manganese Silicon: The high cost supports the price, but the market supply and demand are in a loose state, the cost transmission is not smooth, and the driving force for the futures price to rise is insufficient. It is expected to oscillate at a low level following the sector [2][14] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The high cost supports the bottom of the price. However, the market has weak supply and demand, and there are still difficulties in destocking. The upside space of the futures price should be carefully considered, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level following the sector [2][16] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There is still an expectation of supply disturbances, but the inventories of middle and downstream are moderately high. The current supply and demand are still in excess. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, otherwise, the price will rise. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply - excess pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [2][12][14] - Soda Ash: The overall supply and demand are in excess. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply - excess pattern will further intensify, and the price center will decline, promoting capacity reduction [2][12][14] Steel - The cost support is strengthening, and the futures market is showing a strong performance. However, the export expectation has weakened, the demand in the off - season is weakening, and there are still contradictions in the fundamentals. The upside space of the futures price is limited, and the disturbance of the winter storage replenishment expectation should be noted [6] Commodity Indexes - Comprehensive Index: The commodity index increased by 0.56% to 2262.95, the commodity 20 index increased by 0.57% to 2590.35, the industrial products index increased by 0.45% to 2189.88, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.52% to 1358.64 [102] - Plate Index: The steel industry chain index on December 17, 2025, was 1935.67, with a daily increase of 0.34%, a 5 - day increase of 1.16%, a 1 - month decrease of 2.33%, and a year - to - date decrease of 8.19% [103]