宏观与地缘变量共振，?稳银涨

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pattern of stable gold and rising silver continues, supported by macro - easing and geopolitical uncertainties. Gold remains stable at a high level, while silver accelerates its upward movement and touches $66 under the impetus of funds, with short - term fluctuations increasing but the medium - term direction unchanged [1] - The resonance of macro and geopolitical variables continues, and the gold price enters the high - level repricing stage. The market's pricing of further interest rate cuts has not fully subsided before the US inflation data is released, and the Fed's continuous interest rate cuts and the downward shift of the real interest rate center provide medium - term support for precious metals. Geopolitical premiums are re - embedded in the gold price due to the US pressure on Venezuela's energy transportation and rising regional military risks. Gold is more likely to digest the parabolic rise through high - level oscillations in the short term [3] - The year - to - date increase of silver has significantly expanded and recently reached a record high of $66 per ounce. It is a result of the concentrated allocation behavior of funds to high - elasticity assets under the logic of gold revaluation. The continuous net inflow of ETF funds strengthens the trend trading but also increases short - term congestion. The short - term price has high sensitivity to various factors, and there is a need to digest over - heated indicators. However, the medium - term bullish logic for silver remains [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Key Information - The US is considering sanctions against the so - called "shadow fleet" tankers for transporting Russian oil and the traders facilitating related transactions. These measures are being prepared and may be launched as early as this week if Russian President Putin refuses to reach a proposed peace agreement with Ukraine [2] - Germany's manufacturing industry is a drag factor, with the output index falling to 49.4, ending nine consecutive months of growth. The manufacturing PMI drops to 47.7, staying in the contraction range for the second consecutive month. France's manufacturing shows positive signals, with the PMI rising to 50.6, reaching a 40 - month high, and the manufacturing output index rebounding significantly to 49.7 from 45.0 in November, hitting a four - month high [2] - US President Trump signed an executive order on Monday, classifying fentanyl as a "weapon of mass destruction", which greatly expands the US government's authority to combat the illegal trafficking of this synthetic opioid [2] 2. Price Logic - For gold, the resonance of macro and geopolitical variables continues, and it enters the high - level repricing stage. Before the US inflation data is released, the market's pricing of further interest rate cuts has not fully subsided. The Fed's continuous interest rate cuts and the downward shift of the real interest rate center support precious metals in the medium term. Geopolitical premiums are re - embedded in the gold price. Gold is more likely to digest the parabolic rise through high - level oscillations in the short term rather than a rapid reversal [3] - For silver, its year - to - date increase has significantly expanded and recently reached a record high of $66 per ounce. It reflects the concentrated allocation behavior of funds to high - elasticity assets under the logic of gold revaluation. The continuous net inflow of ETF funds strengthens the trend trading but also increases short - term congestion. The short - term price has high sensitivity to various factors. There is a need to digest over - heated indicators through high - level oscillations or pullbacks. However, in the medium term, the bullish logic for silver remains, and it is more likely to operate in a pattern of "sharp rise - correction - repricing" [3] 3. Outlook - In the short term, the focus for London gold is in the range of [$4150, $4500] per ounce, and for London silver, it is in the range of [$60, $67] per ounce [6] 4. Index Information Comprehensive Index - No detailed information provided Special Index - The Commodity Index is 2262.95, up 0.56%; the Commodity 20 Index is 2590.35, up 0.57%; the Industrial Products Index is 2189.88, up 0.45%; the PPI Commodity Index is 1358.64, up 0.52% [48] Sector Index - The Precious Metals Index on December 17, 2025, is 3714.40, with a daily increase of 2.35%, a 5 - day increase of 3.74%, a 1 - month increase of 10.96%, and a year - to - date increase of 67.89% [49]