Zhong Tai Qi Huo·2025-12-18 00:57Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The A-share market showed a strong rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.19% to 3870.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 2.4%, and the ChiNext Index rising 3.39%. The market turnover reached 1.83 trillion yuan. [14] - The prices of steel and ore are expected to be volatile in the short term with limited rebound space, and a bearish approach is recommended in the medium to long term. [18][19] - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to be volatile in the short term, and the 05 contract may have a phased rebound opportunity but with limited space and strength. [20] - For iron alloys, a bullish approach is recommended for ferrosilicon in the medium term, while a bearish approach is recommended for silicomanganese. [21][22] - For soda ash, a wait-and-see approach is recommended, while for glass, a bullish approach can be considered after the market sentiment stabilizes. [23] - For zinc, short positions are recommended as the price is expected to decline after the macro positive factors fade. [25] - For lead, it is recommended to hold short positions as the fundamentals are weak. [27] - For lithium carbonate, although the short-term fundamentals show signs of weakening, the medium to long-term demand is positive, and buying opportunities during corrections can be considered. [28] - For industrial silicon, it is expected to be volatile in the short term, and there may be some opportunities to repair the valuation. [31] - For polysilicon, the spot price is expected to remain strong, supporting the futures price to run strongly under the expectation of the anti-involution policy. [32] - For cotton, the price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the long-term price is expected to rise due to the expected reduction in supply. [34][35] - For sugar, the price is expected to decline in a volatile manner, and a wait-and-see approach is recommended. [37] - For eggs, a bearish approach is recommended for the near-term contracts, while a wait-and-see approach is recommended for the far-term contracts. [39] - For apples, the price is expected to be volatile. [41] - For corn, a bearish approach is recommended for the far-term contracts, and a reverse spread opportunity can be considered. [42] - For red dates, a wait-and-see approach is recommended, and the market performance during the consumption peak season should be closely monitored. [43] - For live pigs, a bearish approach is recommended for the near-term contracts as the supply is strong and the demand is weak. [44] - For crude oil, the short-term rise driven by geopolitical factors is limited, and the price is expected to decline in the medium term due to the oversupply. [46][47] - For fuel oil, the price will follow the movement of crude oil prices, and the short-term trading focus is on geopolitical factors. [48] - For plastics, a bearish approach is recommended as the supply pressure is large and the demand is weak. [49] - For rubber, a short-term bullish approach can be considered during corrections, and the ru-nr spread strategy can be temporarily stopped for profit. [50] - For synthetic rubber, the price is expected to be strong due to cost and device factors, but chasing the rise should be cautious. [51] - For methanol, a bullish approach can be considered for the far-term contracts after the inventory is smoothly reduced, while a bullish approach is recommended for the near-term contracts. [52][53] - For caustic soda, a bullish approach is recommended as the futures price is strong. [54] - For asphalt, the price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game. [55] - For the polyester industry chain, a positive spread strategy can be considered for PX and PTA 5-9 contracts. [56] - For liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), the price is expected to be weak as the supply is abundant and the demand is poor. [57][58] - For pulp, a wait-and-see approach is recommended, and a short call option strategy can be considered for the 03 contract. [58] - For logs, the price is expected to be under pressure as the fundamentals are weak. [59] - For urea, the Indian urea tender has a positive impact on the near-term sentiment, but the impact on the 05 contract is expected to be weak. [60] Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Macro News - CICC plans to absorb and merge Dongxing Securities and Cinda Securities, and the three companies' stocks will resume trading on December 18. After the merger, CICC will become the fourth securities firm with total assets exceeding 1 trillion yuan. [10] - The global silver market has witnessed a historic rally, with the spot silver price breaking through $65 and $66 per ounce on December 17, approaching $67 per ounce. The year-to-date increase is about 130%, twice the increase of gold futures. [10] - In the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, a moderately loose monetary policy is needed to promote economic growth and price recovery. Market institutions generally expect a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point reduction in the interest rate next year. [10] - From January to November this year, the national fiscal revenue was 20.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. The national tax revenue was 16.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.8%, and the securities transaction stamp duty revenue was 185.5 billion yuan, an increase of 70.7%. [11] - China has achieved a breakthrough in invasive brain-computer interface clinical trials, successfully realizing the control of intelligent wheelchairs and robotic dogs with thoughts. [11] - BYD has launched a full-scale internal test of L3-level autonomous driving in Shenzhen, completing over 150,000 kilometers of actual road verification. [11] - CATL's new energy power battery PACK production line for humanoid embodied intelligent robots has been put into operation, marking a milestone in the application of embodied intelligence in the manufacturing industry. [11] - US President Trump has ordered a "full and complete blockade" of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela and declared the Venezuelan government a "foreign terrorist organization." [12] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller said that the Fed still has 50 to - 100 basis points of room for interest rate cuts, but there is no need for drastic action based on the current economic outlook. [12] Macro Finance - Stock Index Futures: A focus on the sustainability of liquidity repair is recommended. If it materializes, the index may strengthen. The A-share market rebounded strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.19% to 3870.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 2.4%, and the ChiNext Index rising 3.39%. The market turnover reached 1.83 trillion yuan. [14] - Treasury Bond Futures: Medium - and short - term bonds have certain odds and are expected to be volatile and strong. The funds are in a balanced and loose state, and the funds rate is stable. The 11 - month macro - economic data showed a decline in most indicators except for the stable unemployment rate. [15] Black Metals - Steel and Ore: The policy is relatively mild without strong stimulus. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for rolled products is improving. The supply of steel mills is expected to decline, and the inventory is still at a high level compared to last year. The cost is expected to decrease. A short - term volatile and medium - to long - term bearish approach is recommended. [18][19] - Coking Coal and Coke: The price is expected to be volatile in the short term. The coal production is expected to be restricted in the short term, and the demand for raw materials from steel mills is weakening. The 05 contract may have a phased rebound opportunity but with limited space and strength. [20] - Ferroalloys: A bullish approach is recommended for ferrosilicon in the medium term, while a bearish approach is recommended for silicomanganese. The supply of ferrosilicon is expected to decrease, while the supply of silicomanganese is expected to increase. [21][22] - Soda Ash and Glass: For soda ash, a wait - and - see approach is recommended. For glass, a bullish approach can be considered after the market sentiment stabilizes. The supply of soda ash is recovering, while the supply of glass is expected to be reduced. [23] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Zinc: The price is expected to decline after the macro positive factors fade. The domestic inventory has decreased, and the price is affected by the Fed's policy and geopolitical factors. [25][26] - Lead: A bearish approach is recommended as the fundamentals are weak. The production of electrolytic lead has decreased, and the market for recycled lead is inactive. [27] - Lithium Carbonate: Although the short - term fundamentals show signs of weakening, the medium - to long - term demand is positive, and buying opportunities during corrections can be considered. The supply is expected to shift from surplus to balance or shortage. [28][30] - Industrial Silicon: It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and there may be some opportunities to repair the valuation. The supply may be affected by environmental protection in Xinjiang and the price of coking coal. [31] - Polysilicon: The spot price is expected to remain strong, supporting the futures price to run strongly under the expectation of the anti - involution policy. The price is affected by the establishment of the platform company and the supply - reduction expectation. [32] Agricultural Products - Cotton: The price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the long - term price is expected to rise due to the expected reduction in supply. The supply is currently abundant, but the demand for pre - holiday replenishment and the expected reduction in planting area support the price. [34][35] - Sugar: The price is expected to decline in a volatile manner, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and the new sugar supply is increasing. [37] - Eggs: A bearish approach is recommended for the near - term contracts, while a wait - and - see approach is recommended for the far - term contracts. The supply of laying hens is expected to decline, but the inventory is still high, and the demand is seasonal. [39] - Apples: The price is expected to be volatile. The出库 of apples is slow, and the market demand is weak due to the high price and the substitution of citrus fruits. [41] - Corn: A bearish approach is recommended for the far - term contracts, and a reverse spread opportunity can be considered. The supply - demand mismatch is being alleviated, and the far - term supply pressure is increasing. [42] - Red Dates: A wait - and - see approach is recommended, and the market performance during the consumption peak season should be closely monitored. The market is currently stable, and the future performance depends on the consumption demand and inventory reduction. [43] - Live Pigs: A bearish approach is recommended for the near - term contracts as the supply is strong and the demand is weak. The supply is expected to increase at the end of the month, and the demand increase during the double festivals is limited. [44] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The short - term rise driven by geopolitical factors is limited, and the price is expected to decline in the medium term due to the oversupply. The situation in Venezuela has led to a short - term increase in the price, but the long - term impact is limited. [46][47] - Fuel Oil: The price will follow the movement of crude oil prices, and the short - term trading focus is on geopolitical factors. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. [48] - Plastics: A bearish approach is recommended as the supply pressure is large and the demand is weak. The upstream production is in deficit, but there is no strong driving force for a significant rebound. [49] - Rubber: A short - term bullish approach can be considered during corrections, and the ru - nr spread strategy can be temporarily stopped for profit. The cost is supportive, and the price is affected by synthetic rubber. [50] - Synthetic Rubber: The price is expected to be strong due to cost and device factors, but chasing the rise should be cautious. The price is affected by the price of butadiene and the downstream procurement sentiment. [51] - Methanol: A bullish approach can be considered for the far - term contracts after the inventory is smoothly reduced, while a bullish approach is recommended for the near - term contracts. The supply is affected by the shutdown of Iranian plants, and the demand is increasing. [52][53] - Caustic Soda: A bullish approach is recommended as the futures price is strong. The spot market of 32% caustic soda is improving, and the short - selling positions are actively leaving the market. [54] - Asphalt: The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game. The price is affected by the geopolitical situation and the winter storage expectation. [55] - Polyester Industry Chain: A positive spread strategy can be considered for PX and PTA 5 - 9 contracts. The price is mainly driven by cost and market sentiment, and the supply - demand drive is limited. [56] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The price is expected to be weak as the supply is abundant and the demand is poor. The geopolitical premium has limited impact, and the price is prone to decline. [57][58] - Pulp: A wait - and - see approach is recommended, and a short call option strategy can be considered for the 03 contract. The inventory is decreasing, and the market sentiment is improving. [58] - Logs: The price is expected to be under pressure as the fundamentals are weak. The inventory is expected to increase, and the spot price is under pressure. [59] - Urea: The Indian urea tender has a positive impact on the near - term sentiment, but the impact on the 05 contract is expected to be weak. The spot price is stable, and the futures price is strong in the near term. [60]