国信证券晨会纪要-20251218

Macro and Strategy - The U.S. non-farm employment data for October and November indicates a lukewarm job market, suggesting that conditions for interest rate cuts are not yet ripe. November saw an increase of 64,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 50,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, above the anticipated 4.4% [7]. Industry and Company - Recent regulatory policies on fund management are expected to have a long-term impact on the market, emphasizing a tool-oriented approach and potentially increasing style competition in the short term. The new regulations aim to enhance the quality of public fund management, linking the performance assessment of fund managers and sales personnel to investor interests [7]. - Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) is leveraging its overseas cloud and gaming businesses, with AI integration driving new growth engines. The company has expanded its cloud infrastructure globally, covering 22 regions, and is focusing on SaaS and PaaS services, particularly in Asia and the Middle East [8][9]. - Tencent's overseas gaming revenue is projected to reach 75.7 billion RMB in 2025, accounting for 32% of its total gaming revenue, driven by its industrialization capabilities and strategic acquisitions [9]. - Salesforce (CRM.N) reported a revenue of $10.26 billion for Q3 2025, a 9% year-on-year increase, driven by strong performance in its AI-driven products. The company also saw a significant rise in its remaining performance obligations, reaching $29.4 billion, indicating robust future revenue potential [11][12]. Financial Engineering - The market sentiment appears to be stabilizing, with a narrowing of the discount on major contracts. As of December 17, 2025, the annualized discount rates for various index futures are as follows: IH at 0.29%, IF at 3.74%, IC at 4.69%, and IM at 9.94% [14][16]. - The dividend yield for the CSI 300 index stands at 2.11%, with a remaining yield of 0.16%, indicating a focus on dividend-paying stocks in the current market environment [15].