国债期货：底部震荡，曲线走平

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the performance of Treasury bond futures on December 17, 2025, including price changes, capital conditions, and market trading volume [3][4][5]. - Weak non - farm payroll data has strengthened the market's expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Price Changes - On December 17, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.63%, the 10 - year rose 0.10%, the 5 - year rose 0.06%, and the 2 - year rose 0.01% [3]. - The opening, high, low, closing prices, price changes, amplitudes, trading volumes, and open interests of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contracts are provided [4]. 3.2 Capital Conditions - Overnight shibor was reported at 1.2760%, up 0.2bp from the previous trading day; 7 - day shibor was reported at 1.4290%, down 0.3bp; 14 - day shibor was reported at 1.5100%, down 0.1bp; 1 - month shibor was reported at 1.5370%, up 0.4bp [4]. - The 2 - year active CTD bond was 250017.IB with an IRR of 1.62%, the 5 - year was 230014.IB with an IRR of 0.96%, the 10 - year was 250018.IB with an IRR of 1.54%, and the 30 - year was 210005.IB with an IRR of 2.24%. Currently, R007 is about 1.5003% [4]. 3.3 Market Trading Volume - On December 17, the inter - bank pledged repurchase market traded a total of 2.9 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.06%. Overnight repurchase rate closed at 1.31%, down 14bp from the previous trading day; 7 - day repurchase rate closed at 1.48%, unchanged from the previous trading day; 14 - day repurchase rate closed at 1.52%, up 3bp; 1 - month repurchase rate closed at 1.60%, down 1bp [5]. 3.4 Yield Curve Changes - The Treasury bond yield curve showed mixed changes (2Y yield rose 0.85BP to 1.41%; 5Y yield fell 0.13BP to 1.64%; 10Y yield fell 0.13BP to 1.85%; 30Y yield rose 0.15BP to 2.28%). - The credit bond yield curve also showed mixed changes (for AAA - rated medium - and short - term notes, 6M yield rose 3.00BP to 1.73%; 1Y yield rose 5.00BP to 1.74%; 3Y yield fell 11.00BP to 1.81%; 5Y yield rose 0.50BP to 2.28%) [5]. 3.5 Macro and Industry News - Weak non - farm payroll data has strengthened the market's expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8]. 3.6 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of Treasury bond futures is 0 [9].