国新国证期货早报-20251218

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on December 17, 2025 - A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.19% to 3870.28, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.40% to 13224.51, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.39% to 3175.91. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1811.1 billion yuan, an increase of 87 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - CSI 300 Index: Closed at 4579.88, a rise of 82.32 [2]. - Futures: - Coke: The weighted index closed at 1610.9, a rise of 18.5 [2]. - Coking coal: The weighted index closed at 1045.1 yuan, a rise of 4.8 [3]. - Zhengzhou Sugar (2605 contract): Oscillated and slightly declined during the day and slightly rose at night [4]. - Rubber: Oscillated upward during the day and slightly rose at night [4]. - Soybean Meal (M2605 contract): Closed at 2756 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.76% [5]. - Live Pigs (LH2603 contract): Closed at 11435 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.75% [5]. - Palm Oil (P2605 contract): Closed at 8342, a decline of 0.81% [5]. - Shanghai Copper (2602 contract): Closed at 92820, showing a strong - oscillating pattern [5]. - Cotton: The night - session of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13955 yuan/ton [5]. - Iron Ore (2605 contract): Rose 1.25% to 768 yuan [6]. - Asphalt (2602 contract): Rose 3.58% to 3012 yuan [6]. - Logs (2603 contract): Opened at 771.5, closed at 769, with an increase of 1218 lots in positions [6]. - Alumina (ao2601): Closed at 2558 yuan/ton [6]. - Shanghai Aluminum (al2602): Closed at 21915 yuan/ton [6]. - Steel (rb2605 and hc2605): Closed at 3084 yuan/ton and 3245 yuan/ton respectively [6]. 2. Price - related Information and Market Analysis Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: Inventory increased by 14.23%. The short - term demand negative effect of steel export license management has been priced in. Although "industrial regulation" was mentioned, there is limited space for large - scale production cuts. Import coal has obvious incremental expectations, and the short - term winter storage expectation is pessimistic [4]. - Coking coal: The supply of coking coal and coke is increasing. Demand may decline with the weakening of molten iron (molten iron decreased by 3.10 tons). Inventory is accumulating, and the inventory of mine clean coal increased by 3.36%. The price of some types of coking coal and coke has changed:临汾 low - sulfur main coking coal is 1500 yuan/ton (unchanged),乌海 1/3 coking coal is 1100 yuan/ton (+30),临汾 first - grade metallurgical coke is 1805 yuan/ton (-55), and Rizhao quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1735 yuan/ton (-55) [4]. Sugar - Brazilian sugar production in the second half of November was 724,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.94%. The French Ministry of Agriculture raised the 2025 beet production forecast to 35.55 million tons, a 9.1% increase from last year [4]. Rubber - Affected by the border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia, the spot price in Southeast Asia rose, and Shanghai rubber oscillated upward [4]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybeans oscillated weakly. Brazilian soybeans are in the growth season with favorable weather. Brazil's December soybean export is expected to be 357 million tons. In Argentina, 97% of the sown soybeans are in normal or good condition. Domestically, the supply of imported soybeans is abundant, but the extension of customs clearance time eases the supply pressure. Brazilian soybean's good harvest prospects weaken US soybean export demand, and the upward driving force of soybean meal is insufficient [5]. Live Pigs - The supply of live pigs is abundant due to the strong slaughter intention of farmers. The end - of - year concentrated slaughter pressure still exists. However, with the approaching of the pickling peak in Southwest China, the consumption demand has increased in the short term [5]. Palm Oil - The price of palm oil futures continued to decline. The expected export volume of Malaysian palm oil from December 1 - 15 increased by 30.39% compared with the same period last month [5]. Copper - The US non - farm data boosted the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, creating a warm market atmosphere. However, the downstream copper consumption is weak, and the opening rate remains low, but the mine end provides strong support [5]. Iron Ore - The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil increased, the arrival volume rebounded, the port inventory accumulated, and the molten iron production decreased. The iron ore market is in a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, and the price is in an oscillatory trend [6]. Asphalt - The capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, the inventory reduction slowed down, and the demand in the off - season weakened. The asphalt market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is oscillating [6]. Logs - There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. Attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [6]. Alumina - The operating capacity remains high, and the import window is open, while the demand growth is limited. The supply pressure exists, and the warehouse receipt inventory is rising. The demand at the end of the year has limited short - term impact on the market, but the spot trading atmosphere is warm [6]. Aluminum - The supply is stable, the downstream aluminum water consumption capacity is okay, but the inventory in production areas is accumulating, and the social inventory is low. The demand is weak, and the spot performance is poor, but some downstream industries have stable demand [6]. Steel - The steel market in the off - season is in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Traders are reducing inventory, and downstream terminals are purchasing as needed. The cost provides some support for steel prices [6].