格林大华期货早盘提示：贵金属-20251218

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish rating for gold and silver in the non-ferrous and precious metals sector [1] 2) Core Viewpoints - Precious metals are short - term strong, and long - position holders should continue to hold [1] 3) Summary by Related Content Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose 0.90% to $4371.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.92% to $66.44 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed up 0.53% at 982.48 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 3.93% to 15,594 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - As of December 17, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased by 0.86 tons to 1052.54 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, remained unchanged at 16018.29 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 24.4%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 75.6%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 44.4%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 46%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 9.5% [1] - The eurozone's November CPI increased 2.1% year - on - year (expected 2.2%, previous value 2.1%); November CPI decreased 0.3% month - on - month (expected 0.3% decrease) [1] - US media reported that the US and Russia will hold talks on the Russia - Ukraine conflict in Miami this weekend [1] Market Logic - The seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 64,000 in November, higher than expected. In October, non - farm employment decreased by 105,000 month - on - month (market expected a decrease of 25,000). The US unemployment rate in November was 4.6%, the highest in four years. After the release of the non - farm data, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January next year changed little [1] - On December 17, the US dollar index rose and then fell, finally closing up 0.18% at 98.40. The silver inventory of the Shanghai Gold Exchange has been falling for the past three months, and the COMEX silver inventory has been decreasing since October. Tight silver supply has driven silver prices to rise continuously. On December 17, COMEX gold rose slightly, and COMEX silver rose sharply to a new high [1] Trading Strategy - Precious metals are short - term strong, and long - position holders should continue to hold [1]