日度报告：美国准备在俄罗斯拒绝协议后制裁俄罗斯-20251218

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's Waller advocates a moderate pace of interest rate cuts, causing the US dollar index to weaken; the A - share market on December 17 showed a significant volume - based recovery, indicating the national team's support for the long - slow bull market; the commodity market has different trends in various sectors, such as the sugar market being affected by production and export in Brazil and India, and the energy market being influenced by geopolitical events and inventory changes. [2][3][5] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Bostic is more worried about inflation than employment; the US Senate passed a $900.6 billion defense authorization bill. Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher, and silver prices soared. In the short term, the Fed's rate - cut expectation is weak, and the market lacks incremental stimuli. [11][12] - Investment suggestion: The short - term trend of gold prices is volatile and has not broken through, and the sentiment for silver is high, so be aware of increased volatility. [13] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US plans to sanction Russia's energy industry if Putin rejects the peace agreement; Treasury Secretary Bezant refutes concerns about Hassett as Fed chair candidate; Fed's Waller, a top candidate, advocates a moderate rate - cut pace. [14][15] - Investment suggestion: The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term. [18] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Oracle's $10 - billion data center financing faces obstacles, while Micron's performance and guidance exceed expectations. The Fed's Waller believes there is room for rate cuts but no need to rush. [19][20][21] - Investment suggestion: The short - term trend is weakly volatile, but maintain a generally bullish view. [22] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - On December 17, A - shares had a significant volume - based recovery. The national team's support for the stock market is evident, which further boosts confidence in the long - slow bull market of A - shares. [23][25] - Investment suggestion: Allocate evenly in long positions of various stock indexes. [26] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 46.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 143 billion yuan. The market for treasury bond futures rose, but the long - end bonds are volatile. [27] - Investment suggestion: Be cautious about the rise of TL, and be careful when chasing the rise. [28] 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for January and the export tariff. The reduction in export tax and approaching Ramadan may boost exports in January. [29] - Investment suggestion: The price is expected to stabilize, waiting for the release of subsequent high - frequency data. [29] 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - There will be an auction of 550,000 tons of imported soybeans on December 19. The market is worried about US soybean exports, and domestic soybean supply is sufficient with high soybean meal inventory. [30] - Investment suggestion: The futures price of soybean meal is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies. [30] 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The drafting of the "Guidelines for the Construction of the Carbon Emission Data Factor Library in the Steel Industry" started. The steel price is slightly stronger in a volatile pattern, but the upward space is limited due to demand constraints and export issues. [31][33] - Investment suggestion: Adopt a volatile trading strategy for steel prices. [34] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The inventory of starch enterprises has increased, with stable production and weak downstream demand. However, the approaching holiday season may bring some demand growth. [35] - Investment suggestion: In the short term, the price difference between corn starch and corn may not deviate significantly from the processing cost, and it may widen after approaching the previous low. [36] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in the northern ports has increased slightly, and the grain inventory in the southern ports has stopped falling and rebounded. The spot price has stabilized, and the futures price has shifted from a decline to a narrow - range fluctuation. [37] - Investment suggestion: The futures contracts 03 and 05 are expected to be weakly volatile in the near term. [37] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil exported 1.6 million tons of sugar in the first two weeks of December. In mid - November, sugar production in southern Brazil decreased due to factors such as early harvest and low sugar - making ratio. India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season increased. The international sugar market may be in short supply in the first quarter, but the overall supply is expected to be loose this season. [38][40][41] - Investment suggestion: The downward space of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be limited. [42] 2.7 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the East China market is weakly stable. The supply has decreased, and the demand is weak. The price of coking coal futures has fallen, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether subsequent restocking can support the price. [43][44] - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to whether subsequent restocking can support the price. [45] 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The winning bid price of Three Gorges' 2.5GW component procurement is 0.75 - 0.763 yuan/W. Some polysilicon enterprises have raised their quotes. The establishment of a polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform is expected to support the price, but the upward space is limited considering downstream losses. [46][47][48] - Investment suggestion: For existing long positions, gradually take profits. Consider buying put options. [48] 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A 2.5GW solar cell joint - venture project is planned. Some silicon factories may have production cuts, but the inventory may still accumulate in the first quarter of next year if the production cuts are not sustained. [49][50] - Investment suggestion: Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies. [50] 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - A new nickel - containing mineral, Jinxiuite, was discovered. The planned nickel ore production in 2026 is expected to be 250 million tons, which may cause a supply shortage. The current production of NPI and pure nickel has decreased, and it is advisable to short on rallies next year without supply disruptions. [51][52] - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to whether the quota reduction can be implemented. [53] 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Shandong launched a Level II emergency response for heavy pollution weather, which has limited impact on the lead recycling industry. The LME will set position limits for six metals from July 2026. The lead market is weakly stable, and short - selling opportunities on rallies can be considered. [54][55] - Investment suggestion: Short on rallies in the short term; wait and see for arbitrage. [56] 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME will set position limits for six metals from July 2026. The LME zinc inventory has increased, and the domestic refinery production cuts are being implemented. The zinc demand is strong, and positive spreads in monthly contracts are expected to perform well. [57] - Investment suggestion: Look for buying opportunities on mid - term pullbacks; hold positive spread positions in monthly contracts; maintain the reverse spread strategy between domestic and foreign markets. [58] 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Yichun plans to cancel 27 mining rights, which has increased market expectations for fundamental improvement. The social inventory is decreasing, but the price may decline after the resumption of production. [59][60] - Investment suggestion: In the short term, the bullish sentiment is supported, but consider buying on pullbacks in the medium - to - long term. [60] 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin inventory and the SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts have increased. Indonesia's tin export in November increased significantly. The supply from Myanmar is increasing, and the demand remains weak. [61][62][63] - Investment suggestion: The tin price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term, and beware of price drops due to geopolitical easing or capital outflows. [63] 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased. Geopolitical tensions in Venezuela may cause short - term supply disruptions, but the long - term supply risk is relatively small. [64][65] - Investment suggestion: The short - term price will be affected by geopolitical changes. [66] 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt has decreased. The demand is weak, but the supply is at a seasonal low, and the price is expected to be stable. Geopolitical risks may increase the cost of asphalt raw materials. [66] - Investment suggestion: The asphalt price is strongly supported by geopolitical factors in the short term. [67] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports has decreased slightly. The styrene price is weakly volatile, and it may enter a inventory - building phase in early next year, but the cost may provide some support. [68][69][70] - Investment suggestion: Consider the price to be volatile in the short term. [70] 2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - MSC's annual container volume at Qingdao Port exceeded 3 million TEUs. The opening price of MSK's Shanghai - Rotterdam route was lower than expected, and the market may focus on the high - point and decline slope. [71] - Investment suggestion: Hold existing short positions and pay attention to whether other shipping companies will lower their quotes. [71]