西部证券晨会纪要-20251218

Group 1: ETF Day Trading Momentum Strategy - The report upgrades the original day trading momentum strategy to version 2.0, addressing execution difficulties, premature exits, and profit retracement issues, resulting in improved applicability and enhanced risk-reward ratios [1][6][8] - The improved strategy shows an annualized return of 18.9% from January 25, 2013, to October 10, 2025, with a Sharpe ratio of 2.10 and a Calmar ratio of 2.86, maintaining a win rate above 50% [9][10] - Implementing a 50% base position in ETFs and ETF combinations leads to significant excess returns compared to a buy-and-hold strategy, with an annualized excess return of 10.1% and 9.2% for the respective ETFs [10] Group 2: Lithium Battery Industry Strategy - The lithium battery supply-demand landscape is expected to reverse in 2026, driven by stable growth in global power battery demand and high demand for energy storage batteries in domestic and overseas markets [11][12] - Key recommendations include companies like Ningde Times and Yiwei Lithium Energy in the battery segment, and Keda Li and Dongsheng Technology in the materials segment, with a focus on head manufacturers benefiting from capacity concentration and high-end trends [11][12] Group 3: Power Equipment Industry Strategy - The power equipment sector is projected to grow due to rising global power infrastructure investment and domestic market reforms, with a focus on high demand for power equipment exports and energy structure changes [15][16] - Key investment themes include the expansion of AI-driven power demand and the ongoing market reforms that will enhance grid investment, with recommendations for companies like Sanyuan Electric and Dongfang Electric [16] Group 4: Automotive Industry Strategy - The automotive industry is expected to develop steadily, driven by exports and the integration of AI technologies, with recommendations for companies such as Li Auto, BYD, and Great Wall Motors [18][19] - The report highlights the importance of high-end and export-oriented strategies for both complete vehicles and components, with a focus on the growth of new energy vehicles and the recovery of commercial vehicle sales [20][21]