Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year, the policy - supported attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - For national debt, in the short term, the bond market is expected to fluctuate under the background of weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances. Attention should be paid to the repair of the supply - demand relationship at the end of the year and the rebound after over - decline [6]. - For precious metals, the weak US non - farm payroll data boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards silver [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, the prices of copper, aluminum, etc. are expected to be relatively stable or have upward potential due to factors such as supply - demand structure and macro - policies, while zinc, lead, etc. may face some downward pressure [11][13][16]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation, and the price of iron ore is estimated to run within an oscillation range [33][35]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber can be short - term operated with a neutral - to - long idea, and oil prices are recommended to be traded with a low - buy and high - sell strategy [53][57]. - For agricultural products, the prices of different products such as pigs, eggs, and beans are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship and seasonal factors, presenting different trends and investment suggestions [81][84][86]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - Market Information: The A500ETF had a huge trading volume of nearly 53 billion yuan, three times that of the CSI 300ETF. The national general public budget revenue from January to November was 20.0516 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. SpaceX entered the pre - IPO regulatory quiet period [2]. - Strategy Viewpoint: At the end of the year, some funds cash in on profits, and the market faces certain uncertainties. But in the long - term, the policy - supported attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged, and the strategy is to go long on dips [4]. National Debt - Market Information: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. The national general public budget revenue from January to November was 20.0516 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The central bank conducted 46.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 143 billion yuan [5]. - Strategy Viewpoint: In November, the production side was stable, but the service industry was weak, and the demand side needed to be strengthened. The expectation of interest rate cuts is expected to boost the bond market sentiment. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. Precious Metals - Market Information: Shanghai gold rose 0.53% to 982.48 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 3.93% to 15,594 yuan/kilogram. The US non - farm payroll data was weak, and the Fed governor's speech was dovish [7]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The weak non - farm payroll data boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards silver [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - Market Information: The silver price hit a new high, and the copper price rose. The LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic futures warehouse receipts decreased. The domestic copper spot import was at a loss, and the refined - scrap price difference widened [10]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The liquidity expectation is marginally relaxed, and the supply of copper ore is tight. The short - term copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. Aluminum - Market Information: The LME aluminum cancelled warehouse receipts continued to increase, and the aluminum price rose. The domestic aluminum inventory decreased, and the spot was at a discount [12]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The global aluminum inventory is decreasing, and the aluminum price is strongly supported. It is expected to rise after oscillation [13]. Zinc - Market Information: The zinc price fell, the zinc ore inventory decreased, and the LME zinc inventory slowly increased. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased, and the import was at a loss [14][15]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The zinc ore inventory decreased, and the domestic spot tightened. After the Fed's meeting, the zinc price may give back some gains [16]. Lead - Market Information: The lead price fell, the lead ore inventory was basically flat, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly [17]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The lead price is expected to run weakly in a wide range in the short term [17]. Nickel - Market Information: The nickel price rebounded after hitting the bottom. The nickel ore price was stable, and the nickel iron price weakened [18]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The nickel surplus pressure is still large. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [19]. Tin - Market Information: The tin price rose. The supply side had problems such as insufficient raw materials, and the demand side was affected by high prices. The inventory increased [20]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The tin price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The lithium carbonate price rose. The MMLC battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices increased [22]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply - demand pattern repair expectation cannot be falsified. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to fundamental dynamics [23]. Alumina - Market Information: The alumina price rose. The domestic spot was at a premium, and the overseas price fell. The futures inventory decreased [24]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The ore price is expected to oscillate downward, and the alumina production capacity is surplus. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [26]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: The stainless steel price rose. The raw material price was stable, and the social inventory decreased [27]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The stainless steel market is in a traditional off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The cast aluminum alloy price rose. The trading volume and open interest decreased, and the inventory decreased [29]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The cost is firm, and the supply is disturbed. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [30]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - Market Information: The rebar price rose slightly, and the hot - rolled coil price fell slightly. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increased [32]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The terminal demand is weak, and the steel price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The export license policy may suppress the price in the short term [33]. Iron Ore - Market Information: The iron ore price rose, and the inventory increased [34]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply of iron ore increased, and the demand decreased. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market Information: The glass price was flat, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash price was flat, and the inventory decreased [36][38]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The glass market is in a weak supply - demand balance and is expected to oscillate narrowly. The soda ash price is expected to decline under pressure [37][39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: The manganese silicon price rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon price rose. The manganese silicon was at a premium, and the ferrosilicon was at a premium [40]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The future market trend is mainly led by the black sector and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to the manganese ore and electricity price [44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Information: The industrial silicon price rose, and the polysilicon price rose. The inventory of industrial silicon decreased, and the inventory of polysilicon increased [45][47]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The industrial silicon supply and demand weakened marginally, and the polysilicon supply decreased and the demand was weak. Both are expected to fluctuate with the market [46][48]. Energy and Chemicals Category Rubber - Market Information: The rubber price oscillated and rose. The inventory was low, and the demand for winter storage was positive. The tire enterprise's operating rate was different [51]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to operate short - term with a neutral - to - long idea and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [53]. Crude Oil - Market Information: The crude oil price fell, and the refined oil prices had different changes. The gasoline and diesel inventories decreased, and the fuel oil inventory increased [54][56]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The oil price is not recommended to be overly shorted in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export support willingness [57]. Methanol - Market Information: The regional spot prices of methanol had different changes, and the futures price rose. The MTO profit was negative [58]. - Strategy Viewpoint: After the bullish factors are realized, the methanol price is expected to be sorted out at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [59]. Urea - Market Information: The regional spot prices of urea were stable, and the futures price rose. The inventory decreased [60]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The urea supply decreased and the demand increased. It is recommended to go long at low prices [61]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased. The inventory of pure benzene and styrene increased, and the demand had different changes [62][63]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The non - integrated profit of styrene can be long at present [64]. PVC - Market Information: The PVC price rose. The cost was stable, and the operating rate decreased. The inventory increased [65]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The PVC supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies [66]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply decreased, and the demand decreased. The inventory increased [67]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The ethylene glycol supply and demand need to be improved by reducing production. Pay attention to the risk of price rebound [69]. PTA - Market Information: The PTA price rose. The supply was stable, and the demand decreased. The inventory decreased slightly [70]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The PTA supply is expected to increase, and the demand will decrease. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [71]. p - Xylene - Market Information: The p - xylene price rose. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand decreased. The inventory increased [72]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The p - xylene inventory is expected to increase slightly. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: The PE price fell. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand decreased. The inventory increased [74]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The PE price is under pressure, and it is recommended to go short on rallies for the LL1 - 5 spread [76]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: The PP price fell. The supply increased slightly, and the demand increased slightly. The inventory decreased [77]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The PP supply and demand are weak, and the price may be supported in the first quarter of next year [78]. Agricultural Products Category Pigs - Market Information: The domestic pig price rose. Some farmers held back sales, and the demand for large pigs increased [80]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The pig price may rebound in the short term, but the long - term supply is high. It is recommended to short after the rebound and long the far - month contract [81]. Eggs - Market Information: The egg price was mostly stable. The supply was stable, and the demand was different in different regions [82]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The egg price is expected to squeeze the premium in the near - month and pay attention to the pressure in the far - month [84]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: The CBOT soybean price fell. The domestic soybean meal price fell slightly, and the inventory decreased [85]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The soybean import cost has a bottom, and the soybean meal price is expected to oscillate [86]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: The palm oil production and export data were different. The domestic oil price stopped falling [87]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The palm oil supply may reverse in the future. It is recommended to operate based on high - frequency data [88]. Sugar - Market Information: The sugar price oscillated weakly. The production data of major sugar - producing countries were different [89][90]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [91]. Cotton - Market Information: The cotton price oscillated narrowly. The spot price rose, and the inventory increased [92]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The cotton price is unlikely to have a unilateral trend due to uncertain policies and hedging pressure [93].
宏观金融类：文字早评2025/12/18-20251218
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-12-18 01:55