PVC：反弹高度受限

Report Summary of PVC Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the reports [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market's high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term, but supply - side production cuts during the maintenance peak season next year can be expected due to the continuous decline in caustic soda profits and historically low chlor - alkali comprehensive profits [2] - PVC futures prices rebounded starting from last Friday night driven by macro anti - involution sentiment and coking coal rebound. There may still be a small rebound space in the short term, but before the 03 contract, futures contracts face the situation of high开工 and weak demand [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - The 01 contract futures price is 4423, the East China spot price is 4400, the basis is - 23, and the 1 - 5 month spread is - 257 [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The price center of the PVC spot market fluctuates and rises, but the trading atmosphere weakens during the session. The short - term adjustment of the PVC supply - demand fundamentals is limited, the total production reduction by enterprises is small, the market supply remains high, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. The ex - warehouse cash price of calcium carbide - based type 5 PVC in East China is 4380 - 4500 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 4450 - 4600 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Market Situation Analysis - The rebound of PVC futures prices is driven by macro anti - involution sentiment and coking coal rebound. Some devices may cut production due to large losses, but winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, and the scale of new maintenance may be limited. The game of large - scale production cut expectations may occur after the 03 contract. Also, PVC warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the future pressure on long - position holders to take delivery is large [1] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PVC is 0, indicating a neutral trend [2]