宝城期货国债期货早报（2025年12月18日）-20251218

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to be weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation due to the low probability of short - term interest rate cuts and the existence of medium - and long - term easing expectations [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, TS varieties, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The overall situation of treasury bond futures is that there is pressure above and support below, and they will mainly be in oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of TL2603 are oscillate, oscillate, and be weak respectively, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the probability of short - term interest rate cuts is low, while medium - and long - term easing expectations remain [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, treasury bond futures oscillated and rebounded. After continuous corrections, support for treasury bond futures began to emerge. From a macro - fundamental perspective, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand persists, the monetary policy environment next year is expected to be loose, and interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts are still expected. Currently, the market interest rate implies a weak expectation of interest rate cuts, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, the internal and external uncertainty risk factors are weak, the market's risk - aversion sentiment is not strong, and there is no need for further interest rate cuts within the year, so the short - term upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient [5].