五矿期货农产品早报-20251218

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The import cost of soybeans may have reached its bottom, but the upside potential requires a larger - scale production reduction. Domestic soybean and soybean meal are expected to trade in a range. [3] - Palm oil's short - term inventory build - up may reverse in Q4 and Q1 next year. It's recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations. [7] - The global sugar supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus, and the international sugar price may lack significant upward momentum until Q1 next year. Domestic sugar prices are recommended for short - term observation. [10] - Zhengzhou cotton is unlikely to have a unilateral trend due to unconfirmed news and hedging pressure. [13] - The near - term egg futures may squeeze the premium, and the long - term should pay attention to the upper pressure. [16] - The near - term hog futures may have limited upside, and the long - term should pay attention to the lower support. [19] 3. Summary by Category Soybeans and Soybean Meal - Market Information: Overnight CBOT soybeans closed lower. Domestic soybean meal spot prices fell slightly on Wednesday. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.0445 million tons. Brazilian and Argentine main growing areas are expected to have more rainfall. The global soybean inventory - to - sales ratio is still high. [2] - Strategy: Global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high but are entering the de - stocking season. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range. [3] Fats and Oils - Market Information: SPPOMA data shows that Malaysian palm oil production in the first ten days of December increased by 6.87% month - on - month and decreased by 2.97% in the first 15 days. December's first 15 - day exports decreased by 15.89% - 16.37%. Malaysia set the January palm oil reference price at 3946.17 ringgit per ton with an export tax rate of 9.5%. Domestic oils temporarily stopped falling on Wednesday. [5] - Strategy: This year's palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia exceeded expectations, and export data is poor. However, the inventory build - up may reverse. It's recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations. [7] Sugar - Market Information: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were weakly volatile. Brazilian mid - southern sugar production in the second half of November decreased year - on - year. Indian sugar production as of December 15 increased year - on - year. Thailand's sugar production is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season and decrease in the 2026/27 season. [9] - Strategy: The new season's major sugar - producing countries are expected to increase production, and the global sugar market has shifted to a surplus. Domestic sugar prices are at a relatively low level, and short - term observation is recommended. [10] Cotton - Market Information: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices were narrowly volatile. As of December 12, the spinning mill's operating rate was 65.5%. The 2025/26 global cotton production is estimated to be 26.08 million tons. [12] - Strategy: The downstream demand is not bad, and the previous price decline has digested the negative impact of a domestic bumper harvest. Due to unconfirmed news and hedging pressure, Zhengzhou cotton is unlikely to have a unilateral trend. [13] Eggs - Market Information: Most egg prices in the country were stable yesterday, with a few areas rising. The supply is stable, and the market sales are okay. It's expected that most egg prices will be stable in the short term, with a few areas slightly stronger. [15] - Strategy: The near - term futures may squeeze the premium, and the long - term should pay attention to the upper pressure. [16] Hogs - Market Information: Domestic hog prices mainly rose yesterday, with some areas stable or slightly falling. Some farmers are still reluctant to sell, and the demand for large hogs has increased after the temperature drop. [18] - Strategy: The near - term futures may have limited upside, and the long - term should pay attention to the lower support. [19]