招商期货-期货研究报告：商品期货早班车-20251218

1. Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report 2. Core Views - The market conditions of various commodities are diverse, with different supply - demand relationships and price trends. For example, some metals are in a state of supply - demand imbalance, and agricultural products are affected by factors such as production and demand expectations. Energy and chemical products are also facing different situations in terms of supply, demand, and inventory [1][4][6] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories 3.1. Basic Metals Copper - Market performance: Copper prices oscillated strongly yesterday [1] - Fundamentals: Traded on the weaker - than - expected US employment data and the expectation of loose overall liquidity. The supply of copper ore remains tight. Domestic spot prices show different premiums and discounts. The London structure is in contango [1] - Trading strategy: Wait for buying opportunities [1] Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.32% compared to the previous trading day, and the LME price was $2,895 per ton [1] - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, with a slight increase in operating capacity. The weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased slightly [1] - Trading strategy: Entering the traditional consumption off - season, with continuous overseas supply disturbances, a warm macro - environment, and low inventory supporting the price, the price is expected to oscillate [1] Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the main alumina contract increased by 0.67% compared to the previous trading day [1] - Fundamentals: The operating capacity of alumina plants remains stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production [1] - Trading strategy: The fundamental supply - demand contradiction remains unchanged. Domestic and foreign spot prices continue to decline, and cost support weakens. The rebound space is expected to be limited, and the downward pressure is difficult to change [1] Zinc - Market performance: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc 2601 contract decreased by 0.26% compared to the previous trading day. Social inventory decreased by 0.25 tons [1] - Fundamentals: The macro - atmosphere is warm, and supply is tightening. Overseas, a Japanese smelter was shut down due to an earthquake, and LME inventory has increased but the structural contradiction remains. Domestically, zinc concentrate processing fees have been continuously and significantly reduced, squeezing smelting profits and leading to some smelter production cuts. Demand is differentiated [1] - Trading strategy: Buy on dips and be cautious about chasing high prices [1] Lead - Market performance: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc 2601 contract decreased by 0.26% compared to the previous trading day, and social inventory decreased by 0.25 tons [1] - Fundamentals: Domestic supply and demand are mild, with no prominent contradictions. The start - up rate of primary lead smelters decreased slightly, and the start - up rate of secondary lead decreased. The start - up rate of lead - acid batteries increased slightly. The social inventory of lead ingots decreased slightly, but there is a possibility of an increase in visible inventory due to delivery [1] - Trading strategy: Operate within a range, selling high and buying low [1] Industrial Silicon - Market performance: The main 05 contract closed at 8,470 yuan per ton, up 105 yuan from the previous trading day [2] - Fundamentals: The number of open furnaces increased, and social inventory increased slightly. The demand side shows that the polysilicon and organic silicon industries are promoting anti - involution. The aluminum alloy start - up rate remains stable [2] - Trading strategy: The current fundamentals are stable in supply and demand, but social inventory has been increasing slightly for a month. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan per ton. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: Affected by the capital side, LC2605 closed at 108,620 yuan per ton, an increase of 8.0% [2] - Fundamentals: The spot price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate increased. Supply is expected to increase in December, while demand for some materials is expected to decrease. Inventory is expected to continue to decline in December [2] - Trading strategy: Concerns about supply have fermented, and inventory reduction has stabilized prices at a high level. Pay attention to the resumption of production rhythm of Jianxiawo and year - end energy storage policy guidance. If production resumes soon, there is downward pressure on prices; if it is postponed to January, prices are expected to oscillate upward [2] Polysilicon - Market performance: The main 05 contract closed at 61,595 yuan per ton, up 2,995 yuan from the previous trading day, an increase of 5.11% [2] - Fundamentals: Supply is stable, and demand for silicon wafers, battery chips, and components in December is expected to decline by more than 10% month - on - month [2] - Trading strategy: Due to the supply decline being less than the demand decline, inventory is expected to increase by nearly 30,000 tons. The market is concerned about anti - involution price - support and production - limit plans. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price returns to the spot trading range [2] 3.2. Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3,125 yuan per ton, up 46 yuan from the previous trading day's night - session closing price [3] - Fundamentals: The apparent demand and production of building materials show different trends in different calibers. The supply and demand of steel are weak, with significant structural differentiation. Rebar futures are at a large discount, and hot - rolled coil futures' discount is basically flat. Steel mills are continuously losing money, and production may continue to decline slightly [3] - Trading strategy: Mainly wait and see, and try to short the rebar 2605 contract. The reference range for RB05 is 3,050 - 3,100 yuan per ton [3] Iron Ore - Market performance: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 778 yuan per ton, up 14 yuan from the previous trading day's night - session closing price [3] - Fundamentals: The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil increased, and port inventory decreased. Iron ore supply and demand are weak, and the demand for iron ore may decline steadily in the future. The iron ore futures are in a forward - discount structure, and the valuation is moderately high [3] - Trading strategy: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 765 - 800 yuan per ton [3] Coking Coal - Market performance: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1,114 yuan per ton, up 53 yuan from the previous trading day's night - session closing price [3] - Fundamentals: The iron - making water production decreased, and the second - round coke price cut has been implemented. The inventory of coking coal in different links shows differentiation, and the overall inventory level is moderate. The 05 contract futures are at a premium to the spot, and the valuation is high [3] - Trading strategy: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for JM05 is 1,100 - 1,150 yuan per ton [3] 3.3. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market performance: The CBOT soybean price continues to decline in the short term [4] - Fundamentals: The supply side shows a slight near - term production reduction and a large - supply expectation in the long - term in South America. The demand side shows strong US soybean crushing and slow export progress. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose [4] - Trading strategy: The US soybean price is weak. The domestic market is near - strong and far - weak in the short term, but the cost - side drives the price down [4] Corn - Market performance: The corn futures price oscillates narrowly, and the spot price rises [4] - Fundamentals: The national corn channel inventory is low, with a need for inventory building, which leads to logistics tension and short - term supply shortage, making the spot price strong. However, the continuous rise of corn prices has increased the losses of downstream deep - processing enterprises, and the purchasing enthusiasm of the feed end will decline. The spot price is expected to be weak in the short term, and the futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [4] - Trading strategy: The spot price weakens, and the futures price oscillates and declines [4] Oils and Fats - Market performance: The Malaysian palm oil market is weak [4] - Fundamentals: The supply side is in the seasonal production - reduction period but with a year - on - year increase in production. The demand side shows a 15% month - on - month decrease in Malaysian palm oil exports from December 1 - 10. The near - term inventory continues to accumulate, and the long - term shows seasonal production reduction [4] - Trading strategy: Oils and fats are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with differentiation among varieties. Pay attention to future production and biodiesel policies [4] White Sugar - Market performance: The Zhengzhou Sugar 05 contract closed at 5,155 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.35% [4] - Fundamentals: Internationally, the sugar price rebounded slightly this week, and part of the northern - hemisphere production increase has been priced in. The Indian export situation will affect the international trend. Domestically, the sugar price rebounded under the influence of the international market, and the production - increase expectation in Guangxi has been priced in. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level in the fourth quarter [4] - Trading strategy: Short in the futures market and sell call options [4] Cotton - Market performance: The US cotton futures price stopped falling and rebounded, and the international crude oil price rebounded significantly [4] - Fundamentals: Internationally, the US textile and clothing import volume decreased in September, and the Indian cotton yarn export volume changed slightly. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated upward, with obvious buying support. The sales of medium - and high - count yarns are good, and the start - up rate of spinning mills is basically stable [4] - Trading strategy: Buy on dips, with a price range of 13,800 - 14,200 yuan per ton [4] Eggs - Market performance: The egg futures price oscillates narrowly, and the spot price rises [4] - Fundamentals: The number of laying hens in production is decreasing, and the enthusiasm for culling is decreasing. Low prices can drive demand, but the downstream's willingness to purchase decreases after the price increase. The increase in vegetable prices boosts egg prices, but the upward pressure on egg prices is large due to sufficient supply. The egg price is expected to oscillate in the short term [4] - Trading strategy: The supply - demand contradiction is not large, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [4] Pigs - Market performance: The pig futures price rose first and then fell, and the spot price rose slightly [4] - Fundamentals: The supply of pigs is still abundant, but the demand is expected to increase seasonally. The supply - demand pressure has been relieved compared to before. The demand for southern bacon - curing is expected to increase, driving the slaughter volume to continue to rise. The pig price is expected to oscillate and rise, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [4] - Trading strategy: The demand increases seasonally, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [4] Apples - Market performance: The main contract closed at 9,122 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.08% [4] - Fundamentals: This year, the total apple production is low, the inventory is low, and the quality is poor. The overall production decreased by 8% - 15% year - on - year, and the high - quality fruit rate is less than 20%. The spot purchase price has increased significantly, but the sales are slow. The market is trading a situation of weak supply and demand [4] - Trading strategy: Wait and see [4] 3.4. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market performance: The main LLDPE contract fell slightly yesterday. The spot price in North China is 6,400 yuan per ton, and the import window is closed [6] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, new devices are put into operation, and some devices reduce production or stop. The import volume is expected to decrease slightly. On the demand side, the downstream agricultural film is in the off - season, and the demand decreases month - on - month [6] - Trading strategy: In the short term, the inventory in the industrial chain decreases slightly, and the supply - demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, the new production capacity will decrease in the first half of next year, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the far - month contracts [6] PTA - Market performance: The PX CFR China price is $827 per ton, and the PTA East China spot price is 4,594 yuan per ton [6] - Fundamentals: The domestic PX supply is high. The import supply is also at a relatively high level. The PTA short - term supply decreases, and there is a seasonal inventory - accumulation pressure in the medium term. The polyester factory load is high, and the downstream is in the off - season [6] - Trading strategy: The PX supply - demand is strong, with a possible short - term callback. The PTA is expected to accumulate inventory seasonally in the off - season, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern will improve. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy the 05 contract [6] Rubber - Market performance: The RU2605 contract oscillated upward on Wednesday, closing at 15,390 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.42% [6] - Fundamentals: The prices of Thai raw materials are high, and the inventory in Qingdao has increased seasonally. The supply of tire enterprises is at a low level, and the fundamental change is not obvious [6] - Trading strategy: The rubber price rises with the high raw material prices and the strengthening of the commodity index, but be cautious about chasing high prices [6] PP - Market performance: The main PP contract oscillated slightly yesterday. The spot price in East China is 6,150 yuan per ton, the import window is closed, and the export window is open [6] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, new devices are being put into operation, and some devices stop unexpectedly. The supply pressure increases. On the demand side, the downstream start - up rate decreases month - on - month, and the national subsidy has overdrawn part of the fourth - quarter demand [6] - Trading strategy: In the short term, the inventory in the industrial chain decreases slightly, and the supply - demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, the new production capacity will decrease in the first half of next year, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the far - month contracts [6] MEG - Market performance: The East China spot price of MEG is 3,636 yuan per ton [6] - Fundamentals: The supply is at a relatively high level, and the overseas production is high. The East China port inventory has continued to accumulate. The polyester load is high, and the downstream is in the off - season. The medium - term supply - demand will continue to accumulate inventory [6] - Trading strategy: The short - term supply - demand inventory - accumulation pressure is large, and the price is under pressure. The 05 contract valuation has been compressed to a low level, and there may be an opportunity for inventory reduction in the medium term [6] Crude Oil - Market performance: The oil price rebounded significantly yesterday, but the increase is limited due to the inability to reverse the first - quarter oversupply situation [6] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, pay attention to Russian oil production and exports in December and the impact of the US - Venezuela military conflict on Venezuelan exports. The OPEC+ plans to increase production nominally, but the actual increase is small. The supply pressure is still large. On the demand side, the refinery start - up rate in Europe and the US has recovered, but the terminal demand is in the off - season. The OECD oil inventory is higher than the five - year average [6] - Trading strategy: The probability of oversupply is high at the end of the year and in Q1. The crude oil should be shorted. Geopolitical events can only cause short - term disturbances [6] Styrene - Market performance: The main EB contract fell slightly yesterday. The spot price in East China is 6,430 yuan per ton, and the import window is closed [7] - Fundamentals: The pure benzene and styrene inventories are at normal to high levels. The short - term supply - demand of styrene weakens after the resumption of production. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the start - up rate decreases [7] - Trading strategy: In the short term, the supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. In the medium - to - long term, the supply pressure of pure benzene is greater than that of styrene. It is recommended to buy styrene on dips, conduct pure benzene reverse arbitrage, and buy styrene profit on dips [7]