资讯早班车2025-12-18-20251218

1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP in Q3 2025 grew 4.8% year - on - year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year [1] - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, slightly up from 49.0% in the previous month but down from 50.3% in the same period last year [1] - The non - manufacturing PMI for business activities in November 2025 was 49.5%, down from 50.1% in the previous month and 50.0% in the same period last year [1] - Social financing scale increment in November 2025 was not provided, with the previous month at 24885.00 billion yuan and the same period last year at 23288.00 billion yuan [1] - M0, M1, and M2 growth rates in November 2025 were 10.6%, 4.9%, and 8.0% respectively, with M1 and M2 showing a decline compared to the previous month [1] - New RMB loans in November 2025 were 3900.00 billion yuan, up from 2200.00 billion yuan in the previous month but down from 5800.00 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - CPI in November 2025 increased 0.7% year - on - year, up from 0.2% in the previous month and the same period last year; PPI decreased 2.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous month and the same period last year [1] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) cumulative growth rate in November 2025 was - 2.6%, down from - 1.7% in the previous month and 3.3% in the same period last year [1] - The cumulative growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in November 2025 was 4.0%, down from 4.3% in the previous month but up from 3.5% in the same period last year [1] - Export and import values in November 2025 increased 5.9% and 1.9% year - on - year respectively, showing an improvement compared to the previous month [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - From January to November 2025, national general public budget revenue was 200516 billion yuan, up 0.8% year - on - year; tax revenue was 164814 billion yuan, up 1.8% year - on - year; stamp duty was 4044 billion yuan, up 27% year - on - year, with securities trading stamp duty at 1855 billion yuan, up 70.7% year - on - year. General public budget expenditure was 248538 billion yuan, up 1.4% year - on - year [2] - In 2026, the market generally expects a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in interest rates, with structural tools focusing on key areas [2] - On December 17, 2025, 41 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 27 had negative basis.沪镍, 郑棉, and casting aluminum alloy had the largest basis, while butadiene rubber,沪锡, and international copper had the smallest [3] 2.2 Metals - On December 17, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 contract closed at 108600 yuan/ton, up 7.61% for the day, driven by improved supply - demand fundamentals and positive capital entry [4] - The platinum futures main contract on the GZEX hit the daily limit, rising 7%, with a nearly 19% increase in the past 4 trading days, driven by multiple factors [5] - On December 17, 2025, the spot silver price broke through 65 and 66 US dollars/ounce, with a year - to - date increase of about 130%, driven by supply - demand imbalance, Fed rate cuts, and capital inflows [5] - On December 17, 2025, the tungsten powder price reached 1000000 yuan/ton, up 216.5% from the beginning of the year [5] - As of December 16, 2025, tin, zinc, copper, and aluminum inventories increased, while lead inventory decreased, and some metal inventories remained at low levels [6] - As of December 2, 2025, COMEX gold and copper futures speculators increased their net long positions [7] - As of December 17, 2025, the SPDR Gold Trust's holdings increased by 0.08% [7] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The NDRC and other departments released the "Benchmark and Baseline Levels for Key Areas of Clean and Efficient Coal Utilization (2025 Edition)" [9] - Westpac warns that iron ore prices will plunge 20% next year due to China's steel production cuts and new supply [9] - The IEA's "2025 Coal Report" shows that global coal demand in 2025 increased 0.5% to a record 88.5 billion tons but is expected to decline slowly [9] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The European Parliament approved the EU's plan to gradually stop importing Russian natural gas by the end of 2027 [10] - US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 127.4 million barrels last week, and other inventory data also changed [10] - Dallas Fed survey shows that enterprises expect the WTI crude oil price to reach 62 US dollars/barrel by the end of 2026 [10] - Israel approved a 112 - billion - shekel natural gas agreement with Egypt [10] 2.5 Agricultural Products - The Indian market regulatory body may relax commodity derivatives rules for agricultural products [11] - Brazil's soybean and soybean meal exports in December 2025 are expected to increase [11] - China will impose anti - dumping duties of 4.9% - 19.8% on EU pork and by - products [12] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - On December 17, 2025, the central bank conducted 468 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1430 billion yuan [13] 3.2 Key News - From January to November 2025, national general public budget revenue and expenditure data were released, along with expectations for 2026 monetary policy [14] - In November 2025, 30 key cities' second - hand housing transactions increased 14% month - on - month, and real estate bond financing increased 28.5% year - on - year [16] - On December 17, 2025, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar reached a new high, and the Fed has room for rate cuts [18] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - The bond market continued to recover, with yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declining, and some corporate bonds and convertible bonds rising [20] - The money market interest rates showed mixed trends, and the yields of European and US bonds also changed [21][23][24] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - On December 17, 2025, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0460, and the US dollar index rose 0.18% [25] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities expects the wealth management scale to reach over 35 trillion yuan in 2026, with "fixed income +" products as a key growth point [27] - Yangtze River Fixed Income analyzes the potential solutions for local government financing platform's operating debt risks [27] 3.6 Today's Reminders - On December 18, 2025, 232 bonds will be listed, 119 will be issued, 92 will make payments, and 162 will pay principal and interest [28] 4. Stock Market Key News - On December 17, 2025, the A - share market rebounded strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.19%, and sectors such as energy metals and computing power hardware performing well [29] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.92%, with lithium stocks and some sectors rising, and southbound funds having a net purchase of 7.9 billion Hong Kong dollars [30]