20251218申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃（LL&PP）-20251218

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Polyolefin futures declined slightly and stopped falling during the night session. The spot prices of linear LL and拉丝 PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. The overall operating rate of the downstream demand side seems to have reached its peak, and demand is steadily being released. Previously, the market was driven by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodities, leading to a lower valuation of polyolefins. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the cost represented by crude oil can stop falling, the pace of digestion of upstream supply and demand, and the future domestic consumption potential. It should be noted that the continuous decline may have already reflected the forward-looking expectations to some extent, and future market drivers need to focus on actual changes. [2] Group 3: Summary by Category Futures Market - LL Futures: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6439, 6479, and 6514 respectively, with price drops of -77, -64, and -54, and declines of -1.18%, -0.98%, and -0.82% respectively. The trading volumes were 58405, 378254, and 8742, and the open interests were 119319, 540127, and 12595, with changes of -16584, 29984, and 2163 respectively. The current spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were -40, -35, and 75 respectively. [2] - PP Futures: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6196, 6254, and 6287 respectively, with price changes of 4, -2, and -4, and changes of 0.06%, -0.03%, and -0.06% respectively. The trading volumes were 80341, 302658, and 4948, and the open interests were 166066, 519494, and 27232, with changes of -29306, 21552, and 1019 respectively. The current spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were -58, -33, and 91 respectively. [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - Raw Materials: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2159 yuan/ton, 6015 yuan/ton, 594 US dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6020 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. [2] - Spot Market: The current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets for LL were 6500 - 6850, 6400 - 6700, and 6450 - 6850 respectively; for PP, they were 6100 - 6250, 6050 - 6200, and 6100 - 6350 respectively. [2] News - On Wednesday (December 17), the settlement price of the WTI crude oil January 2026 futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $55.94 per barrel, up $0.67 or 1.21% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $55.20 - $56.98. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil February 2026 futures contract on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $59.68 per barrel, up $0.76 or 1.29% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $59.25 - $60.74. [2]