宝城期货股指期货早报（2025年12月18日）-20251218

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of the stock index futures is mainly range - bound, with the short - term for IH2603 being in a range - bound state, the medium - term being in a range - bound state, and the intraday being on the stronger side. The overall short - term view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is also range - bound, with the intraday being on the stronger side and the medium - term being in a range - bound state [1][5]. - The core logic is that policy - driven positive expectations are gradually fermenting. The stock market had a callback and was close to the lower limit of the range, which was attractive to medium - and long - term investors. Policy emphasizes expanding domestic demand as the top priority next year, providing strong support for the stock index. However, due to the low pressure to achieve this year's economic growth target, there is insufficient motivation for policy intensification this year, and the policy is expected to take effect in the first quarter of next year [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | Oscillation | Oscillation | Stronger | Range - bound | Policy - driven positive expectations are gradually fermenting [1]. | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Viewpoints: The intraday view is on the stronger side, the medium - term view is in a range - bound state, and the reference view is range - bound [5]. - Core Logic: The stock index had an intraday rebound after an early - morning consolidation. The total stock market turnover was 181.4 billion yuan, an increase of 6.59 billion yuan from the previous day. The stock market's previous callback made it attractive to medium - and long - term investors. Policy emphasizes expanding domestic demand as the top priority next year, providing support for the stock index. Due to the low pressure to achieve this year's economic growth target, policy intensification is expected to occur in the first quarter of next year, and currently, the stock index is still in a range - bound state, but market risk appetite will gradually recover as policy - driven positive expectations ferment [5].