五矿期货有色金属日报-20251218

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - The Fed's resumption of Treasury bond purchases has led to a marginal easing of liquidity expectations, and the tone of China's Central Economic Work Conference is positive. The short - term risk of a continuous decline in copper prices is small, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [5]. Aluminum - Global aluminum inventories continue to decline, and are at relatively low levels compared to the same period in previous years. With overseas supply disruptions and loose macro - policies, aluminum prices are strongly supported. If inventories continue to decline, aluminum prices are expected to rise further after an oscillatory adjustment [8]. Lead - Lead ore inventories are basically flat, the operating rate of primary lead is declining, while the operating rate of recycled lead is rising. With the ebb of the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market, it is expected that lead prices will operate weakly in a wide range in the short term [10]. Zinc - Zinc ore inventories are decreasing, domestic zinc ingot inventories are decreasing, and LME zinc ingot inventories are slowly increasing. After the ebb of the non - ferrous metals sentiment, Shanghai zinc may give back some of its gains [12]. Tin - Although the current tin market demand is weak and supply is expected to improve, with low downstream inventories, the bargaining power is limited. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [14]. Nickel - The surplus pressure of nickel is still large. It is necessary to wait for ferronickel to further decline in price before testing the cash cost of the pyrometallurgical production line. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [17]. Lithium Carbonate - The cancellation of 27 expired mining rights in Yichun has no real impact on supply, but the expectation of supply - demand pattern repair cannot be falsified. Due to the large intraday price fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to fundamental dynamics and changes in positions [21]. Alumina - After the rainy season, the shipping from Guinea is gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is resuming production. The alumina smelting capacity surplus pattern is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market has entered the traditional off - season, and the supply pressure is expected to ease. The market is currently in a tight - balance pattern, and prices are oscillating widely. It is recommended to wait and see [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively firm, and there are continuous supply disruptions. The demand is relatively volatile, and there is delivery pressure. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [30]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Market Information - The price of silver hit a new high, and copper prices rose. LME copper inventories increased by 325 to 166,925 tons. Domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 to 45,000 tons. The domestic spot copper import loss was about 1,000 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference widened [4]. Strategy Viewpoint - The short - term risk of a continuous decline in copper prices is small, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The operating range of the Shanghai copper main contract is 91,600 - 94,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is 11,600 - 11,900 US dollars/ton [5]. Aluminum Market Information - The LME aluminum cancelled warrants continued to increase, and aluminum prices rose. The SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions decreased slightly, and futures warehouse receipts decreased. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum bar inventories decreased [7]. Strategy Viewpoint - Aluminum prices are strongly supported. If inventories continue to decline, aluminum prices are expected to rise further after an oscillatory adjustment. The operating range of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 21,900 - 22,300 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2,870 - 2,940 US dollars/ton [8]. Lead Market Information - On Wednesday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 0.59% to 16,741 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell 1 to 1,943 US dollars/ton. Domestic social inventories increased slightly [9]. Strategy Viewpoint - It is expected that lead prices will operate weakly in a wide range in the short term [10]. Zinc Market Information - On Wednesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.30% to 22,976 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S fell 4.5 to 3,058.5 US dollars/ton. Domestic zinc ingot social inventories decreased [11]. Strategy Viewpoint - After the ebb of the non - ferrous metals sentiment, Shanghai zinc may give back some of its gains [12]. Tin Market Information - On December 17, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 328,600 yuan/ton, up 1.72%. The operating rate of tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi is stable at a high level but lacks upward momentum. The demand for tin ingots has declined, and inventories have increased [13]. Strategy Viewpoint - Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract operating range is 300,000 - 335,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin operating range is 39,000 - 43,000 US dollars/ton [14]. Nickel Market Information - On Wednesday, nickel prices rebounded after hitting a low. The spot premiums of various brands were stable, and the price of ferronickel weakened [16]. Strategy Viewpoint - The surplus pressure of nickel is still large. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The short - term operating range of Shanghai nickel is 110,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is 13,000 - 15,500 US dollars/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate rose 4.45%. The LC2605 contract closed up 7.97% [20]. Strategy Viewpoint - Due to large intraday price fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to fundamental dynamics and changes in positions. The operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 104,800 - 112,300 yuan/ton [21]. Alumina Market Information - On December 17, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.5% to 2,619 yuan/ton. The spot price in Shandong decreased, and overseas prices also decreased. Futures warehouse receipts decreased [23]. Strategy Viewpoint - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [24]. Stainless Steel Market Information - On Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,380 yuan/ton, up 0.49%. Spot prices in some markets increased, and raw material prices were stable. Social inventories decreased [26]. Strategy Viewpoint - The market is currently in a tight - balance pattern, and prices are oscillating widely. It is recommended to wait and see [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The cast aluminum alloy rebounded, the weighted contract positions decreased, and the volume shrank. The inventory of domestic three - place aluminum alloy ingots decreased [29]. Strategy Viewpoint - Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [30].