钢材&铁矿石日报：现实格局弱稳，钢矿延续震荡-20251217

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a daily increase of 0.10%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, rebar supply has dropped to a low level but its sustainability is questionable, while demand is seasonally weakening. The fundamentals continue to operate weakly, and steel prices in the off - season are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factors are the low valuation and policy expectations. Under the game between expectations and reality, steel prices will maintain a low - level oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated with a daily increase of 0.03%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. At present, both the supply and demand sides of hot - rolled coil are weakening, and the industrial contradictions are alleviated to a limited extent. Prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are the low valuation and policy expectations. Under the game of multiple and short factors, hot - rolled coil will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore was relatively strong with a daily increase of 1.25%, trading volume decreased and open interest increased. Currently, short - term bullish factors remain, supporting iron ore prices at a relatively high level. However, the demand for iron ore is weakening while the supply remains high. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. Under the game of multiple and short factors, iron ore prices will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - From January to November, the national general public budget revenue was 2.00516 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. Among them, property tax revenue was 47.14 billion yuan, urban land use tax revenue was 23.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5%; land value - added tax revenue was 37.82 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%. The national government - managed fund budget revenue was 402.74 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. The central government - managed fund budget revenue was 39.38 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%; local government - managed fund budget revenue at the provincial level was 363.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. Among them, the income from the transfer of the right to use state - owned land was 291.19 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7% [7]. - In November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were strong, with year - on - year rapid growth. In November 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.88 million and 1.823 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 20% and 20.6% respectively. From January to November 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 14.907 million and 14.78 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 31.4% and 31.2% respectively. In November 2025, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles were 1.522 million, a month - on - month increase of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. From January to November 2025, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles were 12.466 million, a year - on - year increase of 23.2%. In November 2025, the export of new energy vehicles was 300,000, a month - on - month increase of 17.3% and a year - on - year increase of 2.6 times. From January to November 2025, the export of new energy vehicles was 2.315 million, a year - on - year increase of 1 time [8]. - As of December 17, 237 steel enterprises have publicly announced their ultra - low emission transformation progress on the website of the China Iron and Steel Association, including Guangxi Guigang Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd. [9] Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,250 yuan, 3,160 yuan, and 3,299 yuan respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,270 yuan, 3,180 yuan, and 3,288 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2,940 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,080 yuan. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 20 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,170 yuan. The price of PB powder at Shandong ports was 783 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 772 yuan. The ocean freight from Australia was 10.55 yuan, and from Brazil was 22.69 yuan. The SGX swap price (current month) was 106.25 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 106.20 yuan [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,084 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.10%. The trading volume was 593,611 lots, a decrease of 185,104 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 1,604,729 lots, a decrease of 10,413 lots. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,245 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.03%. The trading volume was 286,883 lots, a decrease of 153,927 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 1,199,948 lots, a decrease of 6,813 lots. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 768.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.25%. The trading volume was 229,787 lots, a decrease of 9,825 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 488,996 lots, an increase of 9,427 lots [12]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory changes and total inventory), iron ore inventory (including national 45 - port inventory, 247 - steel - mill inventory, domestic mine iron concentrate inventory), and steel mill production (including 247 - sample steel - mill blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization, 87 - independent electric - furnace operating rate, 247 - steel - mill profitable steel - mill ratio, 75 - building - material independent electric - arc - furnace steel - mill profit and loss situation) [14][19][34] 后市研判 - For rebar, both supply and demand are continuously weakening. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 105,300 tons month - on - month, and supply has continued to contract and reached a low level, which supports steel prices. However, the profit of short - process steel mills is acceptable, and the sustainability of production cuts needs to be tracked. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar is weak. The weekly apparent demand decreased by 138,900 tons month - on - month, and the high - frequency daily trading volume is weakly stable. Both are at the low levels in recent years, and the downstream shows no improvement. Demand is expected to continue to weaken seasonally, which will put pressure on steel prices. In general, the supply of rebar has dropped to a low level but its sustainability is questionable, while demand is seasonally weakening. The fundamentals continue to operate weakly, and steel prices in the off - season are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factors are the low valuation and policy expectations. Under the game between expectations and reality, steel prices will maintain a low - level oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [36]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern continues to be weak. In the off - season, steel mill production is weakening. The weekly output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 56,000 tons month - on - month, and the supply has continued to contract from a high level, but the inventory level is high, and the pressure relief is limited. Meanwhile, the demand for hot - rolled coil continues to be weak. The weekly apparent demand and high - frequency trading volume are weak. The relatively positive factor is that the production of the main downstream cold - rolled products continues to rise, which supports demand. However, there are new disturbances in export policies, and there are concerns about external demand. The resilience of hot - rolled coil demand is weakening. At present, both the supply and demand sides of hot - rolled coil are weakening, and the industrial contradictions are alleviated to a limited extent. Prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are the low valuation and policy expectations. Under the game of multiple and short factors, hot - rolled coil will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [36]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern has changed little. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline. The average daily hot - metal output and the daily consumption of imported ore of the sample steel mills decreased again last week, both reaching relatively low levels. Moreover, the profitability of steel mills has not improved, and the weak demand pattern for ore is difficult to change, which will continue to put pressure on iron ore prices. Meanwhile, the arrival volume of iron ore at domestic ports has increased significantly, and the shipments of miners have also increased. Both are at the high levels of the year. The overseas ore supply is active, while the domestic mine production is seasonally weak, and the ore supply remains high. In general, short - term bullish factors remain, supporting iron ore prices at a relatively high level. However, the demand for iron ore is weakening while the supply remains high. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. Under the game of multiple and short factors, iron ore prices will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [37].