新能源及有色金属日报：几内亚矿开始恢复开采-20251218

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [8] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [8] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Neutral [8] Core Views - The report analyzes the aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy markets, considering factors such as production, inventory, cost, and consumption. It concludes that aluminum and aluminum alloy prices may have limited downside in the long - term, while alumina faces supply - side pressure [6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Price and Inventory - On December 17, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 21,750 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract opened at 21,845 yuan/ton and closed at 21,915 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton. The domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 596,000 tons, up 12,000 tons from the previous period [1][2] Market Analysis - Mozambique's 500,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum production capacity will be cut in March 2026 due to water and electricity shortages and high power costs. The Fed's December interest rate cut has been priced in, and there are few short - term macro - level positive factors. The social inventory is not smoothly decreasing, and the spot discount is difficult to repair. However, the low inventory level limits the downside of aluminum prices [6] Alumina Price and Inventory - On December 17, 2025, the alumina main contract opened at 2,539 yuan/ton and closed at 2,558 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton (0.95%). The Shanxi price was 2,755 yuan/ton, the Shandong price was 2,685 yuan/ton, etc. The overseas East Australia FOB price was 310 US dollars/ton. The domestic warehouse receipt pressure is not relieved, with over 110,000 tons of January - due warehouse receipts [2] Market Analysis - Some mines in Guinea are resuming production, increasing the price pressure on the ore end. The supply side is unlikely to have large - scale production cuts in the short term, and the supply surplus pattern cannot be reversed. The electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material reserves, and the winter storage replenishment expectation is low [7] Aluminum Alloy Price, Inventory, and Cost - profit - On December 17, 2025, the Baotai civil raw aluminum purchase price was 16,600 yuan/ton, and the mechanical raw aluminum purchase price was 16,900 yuan/ton, both up 100 yuan/ton. The ADC12 Baotai quotation was 21,000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The social inventory was 73,100 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 58,100 tons. The theoretical total cost was 21,245 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 145 yuan/ton [3][4][5] Market Analysis - The report has a cautiously bullish view on the aluminum alloy market, but no detailed analysis of market factors is provided in the given text [8]